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JohnOsbourne

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About JohnOsbourne

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    Zep Head

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  • Location
    The Darkest Depths of Mordor

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  1. JohnOsbourne

    Guilty Pleasures

    I've heard of Green Jello, but not Imperial Butt Wizards, I'll have to check them out (great name).
  2. JohnOsbourne

    Guilty Pleasures

    Hair metal has its place in the musical food chain. The Crue is fun, mindless entertainment. LA Guns was probably the best of the bunch, Tracii Guns is an excellent guitarist.
  3. JohnOsbourne

    Guilty Pleasures

    They're an American heavy metal band who wear goofy/stupid stage costumes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gwar
  4. JohnOsbourne

    Guilty Pleasures

    GWAR!
  5. JohnOsbourne

    Vienna 73 and Bonzo’s Birthday Party

    Vienna is an outstanding show, although a notch below Offenburg and Hamburg. Others have mentioned the great DC and HB, but I also love STH from this show, the drum-guitar interplay in the solo is fantastic. Bonzo's Birthday is overrated, like most of the West Coast '73 shows. It's certainly not as good as the 2nd Forum night.
  6. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    The Forum shows are indeed weaker than the other shows on the great West Coast run, not just Seattle. But there are still some killer moments there and there is a certain allure to Zeppelin in the Forum. I think any LA soundboard would be a big deal (esp. a box set), although no doubt at this stage there's a good deal of '75 fatigue. For clarity I probably shouldn't have included Pontiac and Badgeholder shows with a discussion of the '75 boards. There's been a good enough mix and large enough sample for '75 to conclude that it's very unlikely they have anything from January and early February. Keep in mind that if they had the entire tour, this would include the unreleased Pittsburgh show, which would unquestionably generate great interest. The fact that the January performances were sub-par in many ways isn't a enough strong reason to think that's why the early leg of tour has been held back, IMO. For '77, as was discussed above a block of tapes was taken from the band. This probably explains what we've seen for the '77 boards: they were taken in May when the second leg began, and the band didn't figure it out until they got to NY in early June (surprised they caught on at all given how drugged out they all were). If true, this event makes unlikely Pontiac or the Forum. Ultimately it comes down to: what reason do you have to believe tapes of these shows exist, outside of the band (Page and probably Jason Bonham)? I can't see a good reason, and I generally need a reason to believe something, faith aside.
  7. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    OK, thank you.
  8. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    Simple question: were these tapes taken? Yes or no.
  9. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    By "contiguous block" I mean such a block as a *subset* within the overall tour, i.e. not a mixed sample or the entire tour. It's not a question of pure logic, it's a question of probabilistic analysis. If they were randomly drawing from the shows they had, and if they had the entire tour, then the probability that we would see this many releases without seeing anything from January or early February is tiny, and therefore the hypothesis of a random draw from the complete set should be rejected as unlikely on statistical grounds. Of course, EV or whomever is not making a random draw, there is some will involved, but the actual releases we've seen are a good mix of classics (Seattle), duds (Landover), hidden gems (St Louis), and irrelevancies (Baton Rouge). There is indeed no pattern to the actual shows released, so they closely resemble a random draw. Therefore it is reasonable to accept the first part of the premise, and reject the complete set hypothesis. Put differently, they are effectively drawing randomly from a subset. This subset *does* have a pattern, namely mid-Feb to late March. You are confusing the non-pattern of actual releases with the category/pattern from which these releases come. Landover is a good example because you seem to regard it as a "gotcha" case. Few would have predicted Landover's release in 2016 (I certainly didn't), but that is not the point. The real issue is, in 2016, which would have been regarded as more likely to be released: Landover or (say) Cleveland? Pretty easy answer. And it still fits the prevailing pattern (starting in mid-Feb). It is no refutation. BTW, subjectivity aside, there are good shows from January, Detroit is certainly as good as or better than some shows they have released. And you undercut your position with your single/teaser example: if they had anything unique from Chicago, they could have released it by now. The fact that they haven't suggests they simply don't have those shows. I suspect they have LA because, with the big one (Seattle) out of the way, they will still want some kind of grand finale. That really only leaves the Forum shows.
  10. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    Grant's not saying he thinks the block of tapes was taken *because* of the prevalence of bootlegs, he's saying the tapes *were* taken and then (mistakenly) attributes this fact to the prevalence of bootlegs. Completely different issues.
  11. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    Grant's ambiguous or inaccurate statements about available bootlegs have nothing to do with the original statement he was making, which is that a block of soundboard tapes were taken outside of Zeppelin's control.
  12. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    I have already provided it, a few posts up tonight and in previous debates with you here over the last two years or so. The fact that you choose to not honestly confront it, instead offering up distractions and irrelevancy, points to your dishonesty (assuming you've actually understood what is being explained to you, it's clear enough you don't understand statistical reasoning but you should at least make an effort).
  13. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    You are simply dishonest. What do the release dates of the soundboards have to do with anything? It obviously has nothing to do with what I'm talking about it. And it's clear you are just making up these anecdotes since you provide no evidential support. Just stick with your Bigfoot theory (he's gotta be out there, right? can't prove otherwise). The dreamers who are sure the Pontiac '77 board is out there will be reassured, but those of us in the real world don't care.
  14. JohnOsbourne

    Lawsuit over Stairway to Heaven

    Are they claiming Dolly Parton wrote her song after hearing Taurus? If not, these comparisons are irrelevant.
  15. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    I have no idea who you are referring to with your anecdotes ("bottom of the barrel", etc.), but it is certainly not me. I have made clear here, several times, my explanation for the pattern of the '75 and '77 SB releases, which you are welcome to comment on if you like (instead of tossing in your favorite [perhaps made-up] anecdotes). With some very mild assumptions about EV's choices for particular releases, it is simply statistically improbable, after 15 years, that they have anything from Jan 75 or Pontiac or Forum '77 shows. We would have seen them by now. The idea that the "Revolution" tapes are coming from a contiguous block of shows (suggesting whoever supplied them grabbed a bunch of tapes aligned in chronological order, but not the entire tours) not only fits the data best, it is falsifialbe. I had assumed that if they had 3-21, they would have saved the best for last. Now it is reasonable to suspect that they have the LA '75 shows as well. But they definitely have 3-10, 3-12, and 2-27, as I have always said here. Perhaps Philly (2-8) as well. But I've never said Seattle was the last of the bunch, maybe you can provide a link to who actually did say this? Again, very highly doubtful they have any January '75 shows, or anything from April '77. This Osaka show probably has something to do with the 50th anniversary, unless you want to believe in coincidences. You can say we simply don't know what they have or don't have, but to me this is on par with saying we don't really know is Bigfoot exists or not. Maybe we don't, but the evidence is clear enough. And we can make sufficiently informed speculation at this stage.
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