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JohnOsbourne

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Everything posted by JohnOsbourne

  1. JohnOsbourne

    Guilty Pleasures

    I've heard of Green Jello, but not Imperial Butt Wizards, I'll have to check them out (great name).
  2. JohnOsbourne

    Guilty Pleasures

    Hair metal has its place in the musical food chain. The Crue is fun, mindless entertainment. LA Guns was probably the best of the bunch, Tracii Guns is an excellent guitarist.
  3. JohnOsbourne

    Guilty Pleasures

    They're an American heavy metal band who wear goofy/stupid stage costumes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gwar
  4. JohnOsbourne

    Guilty Pleasures

    GWAR!
  5. JohnOsbourne

    Vienna 73 and Bonzo’s Birthday Party

    Vienna is an outstanding show, although a notch below Offenburg and Hamburg. Others have mentioned the great DC and HB, but I also love STH from this show, the drum-guitar interplay in the solo is fantastic. Bonzo's Birthday is overrated, like most of the West Coast '73 shows. It's certainly not as good as the 2nd Forum night.
  6. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    The Forum shows are indeed weaker than the other shows on the great West Coast run, not just Seattle. But there are still some killer moments there and there is a certain allure to Zeppelin in the Forum. I think any LA soundboard would be a big deal (esp. a box set), although no doubt at this stage there's a good deal of '75 fatigue. For clarity I probably shouldn't have included Pontiac and Badgeholder shows with a discussion of the '75 boards. There's been a good enough mix and large enough sample for '75 to conclude that it's very unlikely they have anything from January and early February. Keep in mind that if they had the entire tour, this would include the unreleased Pittsburgh show, which would unquestionably generate great interest. The fact that the January performances were sub-par in many ways isn't a enough strong reason to think that's why the early leg of tour has been held back, IMO. For '77, as was discussed above a block of tapes was taken from the band. This probably explains what we've seen for the '77 boards: they were taken in May when the second leg began, and the band didn't figure it out until they got to NY in early June (surprised they caught on at all given how drugged out they all were). If true, this event makes unlikely Pontiac or the Forum. Ultimately it comes down to: what reason do you have to believe tapes of these shows exist, outside of the band (Page and probably Jason Bonham)? I can't see a good reason, and I generally need a reason to believe something, faith aside.
  7. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    OK, thank you.
  8. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    Simple question: were these tapes taken? Yes or no.
  9. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    By "contiguous block" I mean such a block as a *subset* within the overall tour, i.e. not a mixed sample or the entire tour. It's not a question of pure logic, it's a question of probabilistic analysis. If they were randomly drawing from the shows they had, and if they had the entire tour, then the probability that we would see this many releases without seeing anything from January or early February is tiny, and therefore the hypothesis of a random draw from the complete set should be rejected as unlikely on statistical grounds. Of course, EV or whomever is not making a random draw, there is some will involved, but the actual releases we've seen are a good mix of classics (Seattle), duds (Landover), hidden gems (St Louis), and irrelevancies (Baton Rouge). There is indeed no pattern to the actual shows released, so they closely resemble a random draw. Therefore it is reasonable to accept the first part of the premise, and reject the complete set hypothesis. Put differently, they are effectively drawing randomly from a subset. This subset *does* have a pattern, namely mid-Feb to late March. You are confusing the non-pattern of actual releases with the category/pattern from which these releases come. Landover is a good example because you seem to regard it as a "gotcha" case. Few would have predicted Landover's release in 2016 (I certainly didn't), but that is not the point. The real issue is, in 2016, which would have been regarded as more likely to be released: Landover or (say) Cleveland? Pretty easy answer. And it still fits the prevailing pattern (starting in mid-Feb). It is no refutation. BTW, subjectivity aside, there are good shows from January, Detroit is certainly as good as or better than some shows they have released. And you undercut your position with your single/teaser example: if they had anything unique from Chicago, they could have released it by now. The fact that they haven't suggests they simply don't have those shows. I suspect they have LA because, with the big one (Seattle) out of the way, they will still want some kind of grand finale. That really only leaves the Forum shows.
  10. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    Grant's not saying he thinks the block of tapes was taken *because* of the prevalence of bootlegs, he's saying the tapes *were* taken and then (mistakenly) attributes this fact to the prevalence of bootlegs. Completely different issues.
  11. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    Grant's ambiguous or inaccurate statements about available bootlegs have nothing to do with the original statement he was making, which is that a block of soundboard tapes were taken outside of Zeppelin's control.
  12. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    I have already provided it, a few posts up tonight and in previous debates with you here over the last two years or so. The fact that you choose to not honestly confront it, instead offering up distractions and irrelevancy, points to your dishonesty (assuming you've actually understood what is being explained to you, it's clear enough you don't understand statistical reasoning but you should at least make an effort).
  13. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    You are simply dishonest. What do the release dates of the soundboards have to do with anything? It obviously has nothing to do with what I'm talking about it. And it's clear you are just making up these anecdotes since you provide no evidential support. Just stick with your Bigfoot theory (he's gotta be out there, right? can't prove otherwise). The dreamers who are sure the Pontiac '77 board is out there will be reassured, but those of us in the real world don't care.
  14. JohnOsbourne

    Lawsuit over Stairway to Heaven

    Are they claiming Dolly Parton wrote her song after hearing Taurus? If not, these comparisons are irrelevant.
  15. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    I have no idea who you are referring to with your anecdotes ("bottom of the barrel", etc.), but it is certainly not me. I have made clear here, several times, my explanation for the pattern of the '75 and '77 SB releases, which you are welcome to comment on if you like (instead of tossing in your favorite [perhaps made-up] anecdotes). With some very mild assumptions about EV's choices for particular releases, it is simply statistically improbable, after 15 years, that they have anything from Jan 75 or Pontiac or Forum '77 shows. We would have seen them by now. The idea that the "Revolution" tapes are coming from a contiguous block of shows (suggesting whoever supplied them grabbed a bunch of tapes aligned in chronological order, but not the entire tours) not only fits the data best, it is falsifialbe. I had assumed that if they had 3-21, they would have saved the best for last. Now it is reasonable to suspect that they have the LA '75 shows as well. But they definitely have 3-10, 3-12, and 2-27, as I have always said here. Perhaps Philly (2-8) as well. But I've never said Seattle was the last of the bunch, maybe you can provide a link to who actually did say this? Again, very highly doubtful they have any January '75 shows, or anything from April '77. This Osaka show probably has something to do with the 50th anniversary, unless you want to believe in coincidences. You can say we simply don't know what they have or don't have, but to me this is on par with saying we don't really know is Bigfoot exists or not. Maybe we don't, but the evidence is clear enough. And we can make sufficiently informed speculation at this stage.
  16. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    I should add, the contiguous date theory hasn't been invalidated for the '77 boards, either.
  17. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    Sure, it's speculation (everything here is), but it's informed speculation. Or rather, it fits best with the observed facts. Anyone who thought Seattle would be incomplete was proved wrong, and at any rate there was no justification for making such a claim at the time (i.e. it was uninformed speculation). None of these bootlegs (in the "Revolution" series) has been released in partial form, only to be completed later. True enough, teasers/singles appear to be a new marketing feature, and that started with Seattle. But that reflects the changing business environment and there is no reason to think it presages a new approach where shows are released piecemeal. I was surprised (and disappointed) when it was revealed that 9-29 was incomplete, but that led me to believe that the source of this show (and the 9-28 Black Dog) is different from the '75-'77 shows. If the next '75 board (they have at least three left, maybe six if you count the Forum shows) plays out this way, I'll change my mind, but until then I'm going with the evidence. And not really sure who you refer to in your anecdotes here, but re. the "from XXX date to XXX date" part, I have yet see this one proven wrong as far as the '75 boards go.
  18. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    Good point, but this is a risky business, they're bootlegs after all (which is why complaints about EV's "proprietary rights", which have been raised elsewhere here, are just completely confused). Nothing is truly anonymous online these days, so even a mass product is not completely safe if Zep's attorneys really wanted to get involved.
  19. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    FYI, you're responding to something zepster1970 wrote, not me (you picked up a quote that I quoted).
  20. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    I'm sorry but this is just specious. Seattle was released as a complete show, the samplers to prime the pump have nothing to do with that. Neither does mixing incomplete soundboards with audience sources. There is absolutely no reason to believe they have the complete boards of the shows you listed, and there is absolutely no reason to believe they have the complete 9-29 show. The private auction theory is speculation, but it's the only way I can see how bootleg companies can make money these days, since the shows will be uploaded almost immediately upon release for sale to the general public, as Osaka was. None of other explanations I've seen here make sense, so it's simply a question of eliminating the least plausible alternatives.
  21. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    Right, it is a business, which is why they're not going to dick around with drawn-out, partial releases and such (anger is a bad way to run things and at any rate partial releases don't really help them in the long run). And they're not going to just sit on the handful of remaining "Soundboard Revolution" tapes they almost certainly have. Which means they're also NOT going to try to sell physical copies to the (public) market at large as their primary business plan, that ship has sailed. What they're likely doing now is having private auctions (preceded by samplers/teasers) for wealthy collectors, that's where they're going to get the money for all of this. When they've hit their targets there, then they'll release something to the public for gravy. So I fully expect a few more shows (the reason there are fewer and fewer is not because of downloading, it's because the well truly is running dry, it's a fantasy to think there's tons of tapes squirreled away somewhere), without having to pay a dime for them. It's a win-win.
  22. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    You're welcome.
  23. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    I keep hearing that EV was angry about Seattle getting leaked and uploaded, but I'm trying to understand on what grounds. Isn't it a given these days that these bootlegs will get uploaded almost immediately upon release? It's not the early 2000's anymore. How can they be surprised and upset that this happened? At any rate this idea that they're only releasing a partial board of Osaka out of vindictiveness over Seattle last year is just ludicrous. They're a business, they're not going to forgo revenue to settle a score. Releasing the entire show in a few months is not going to address their central problem, which is that they can't make money anymore off of a public market. They've released what they have of 9-29.
  24. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    They're not reading this, and they don't have the complete source.
  25. JohnOsbourne

    09/29/1971 Osaka - Stairway To Heaven - EVSD SBD Single

    EV has proprietary rights to nothing. It's a bootleg, remember?
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