Egypt is about to dump Mubarak

[beetleron]

PS, Unless the Wife's about you understand?

glad you admitted yer P whipped Dan

pretty sure we all already knew though............

[spidersandsnakes]

let's hope not too many people get killed over there

bad scene for sure

DITTO.....I wouldn't want peole here to think that I am for violence.....but somehow, the human race seems to be addicted to it:(

[BIGDAN]

DITTO.....I wouldn't want peole here to think that I am for violence.....but somehow, the human race seems to be addicted to it:(

Hi Spider,

Violence is worse in the Uncivilised parts of the World, you know those bits that the English didn't get to or we don't own now, bits like the Middle East (sorry Leddy), South America, Africa, Arizona, Brixton, I'll leave it there for now folks, don't want to offend the Natives.

Regards, Danny

[Rock N' Rollin' Man]

let's hope not too many people get killed over there

bad scene for sure

Yes and change for the better happens.

[Rock N' Rollin' Man]

http://www.arabist.net/blog

Manipulation

Something very fishy is taking place — the Egyptian people are being manipulated and terrified by the withdrawal of the police yesterday, reports (some of them perhaps untrue) of widespread looting, and yesterday's (during the day) relatively low military presence in the city. I can only speak about central Cairo, I suspect the situation is much worse in the Suez Canal cities, Alexandria and the Delta, and perhaps most of all the Sinai. I spoke to my former bawaab (doorman) who is near Aswan, where is he the police is still out and there is no military, although the local NDP office was ransacked and set on fire. So the situation is different from place to place, and there is very little national-level visibility.

There is a discourse of army vs. police that is emerging. I don't fully buy it — the police was pulled out to create this situation of chaos, and it's very probable that agent provocateurs are operating among the looters, although of course there is also real criminal gangs and neighborhoods toughs operating too.

For me, Omar Suleiman being appointed VP means that he's in charge. This means the old regime is trying to salvage the situation. Chafiq's appointment as PM also confirms a military in charge. These people are part of the way Egypt was run for decades and are responsible for the current situation. I suspect more and more people, especially among the activists, are realizing this.

I hope to have more steady internet access later. For now, the questions are:

- Why was the NPD building fire not put out even though it risks spreading to the Egyptian Museum?

- Why is Egyptian state TV terrifying people with constant pictures of criminal gangs?

- Why was there such a small military deployment during the day yesterday?

- Why were all police forces pulled out, and who made that decision?

- What is the chain of command today in the military? Is Armed Forces Chief of Staff Sami Enan still in position?

- If the reports about prison breakouts are true, how come these facilities have not been secured?

- Why are we getting reports of intelligence offices burning documents, CDs and tapes?

The situation is obviously very confusing at the moment. All I can say is that I have a hard time believing that Mubarak is still in charge, and that the hard core of the regime is using extreme means to salvage its position.

[BIGDAN]

http://www.arabist.net/blog

Manipulation

Something very fishy is taking place — the Egyptian people are being manipulated and terrified by the withdrawal of the police yesterday, reports (some of them perhaps untrue) of widespread looting, and yesterday's (during the day) relatively low military presence in the city. I can only speak about central Cairo, I suspect the situation is much worse in the Suez Canal cities, Alexandria and the Delta, and perhaps most of all the Sinai. I spoke to my former bawaab (doorman) who is near Aswan, where is he the police is still out and there is no military, although the local NDP office was ransacked and set on fire. So the situation is different from place to place, and there is very little national-level visibility.

There is a discourse of army vs. police that is emerging. I don't fully buy it — the police was pulled out to create this situation of chaos, and it's very probable that agent provocateurs are operating among the looters, although of course there is also real criminal gangs and neighborhoods toughs operating too.

For me, Omar Suleiman being appointed VP means that he's in charge. This means the old regime is trying to salvage the situation. Chafiq's appointment as PM also confirms a military in charge. These people are part of the way Egypt was run for decades and are responsible for the current situation. I suspect more and more people, especially among the activists, are realizing this.

I hope to have more steady internet access later. For now, the questions are:

- Why was the NPD building fire not put out even though it risks spreading to the Egyptian Museum?

- Why is Egyptian state TV terrifying people with constant pictures of criminal gangs?

- Why was there such a small military deployment during the day yesterday?

- Why were all police forces pulled out, and who made that decision?

- What is the chain of command today in the military? Is Armed Forces Chief of Staff Sami Enan still in position?

- If the reports about prison breakouts are true, how come these facilities have not been secured?

- Why are we getting reports of intelligence offices burning documents, CDs and tapes?

The situation is obviously very confusing at the moment. All I can say is that I have a hard time believing that Mubarak is still in charge, and that the hard core of the regime is using extreme means to salvage its position.

Hi 'Rock N' Rollin' Man'

Thanks for the info.

The only thing that really matters is that Egypt returns a Government that is Pro West, any thing else like a Fundamentalist Regime will mean the War against Zionism is back on and Israel will be the next target, well they will need to attack someone to appease the Extremists who get them in wont they? And the America's aren't going to tolerate that are they?

Regards, Danny

PS, I'm not planning a holiday there any time soon.

[TypeO]

I didn't mention stevejones though.....PLS WAKE UP AND STOP MAKING A FOOL OF YERSELF!!!:)

WTF? You quoted his post.

ONLY the RIGHT-WING maniacs of WW II had that DISGUSTING power.....go back to yer history books:):)

So you don't believe Iran has or is extremely close to having nuclear (and almost certainly currently have biological) weapons and the capacity to deliver them in a matter of minutes with the close proximity in which they exist?

Because that would make you more than just a little clueless.

[Rock N' Rollin' Man]

http://jnthnwrght.blogspot.com/

An overview, slightly dated

This is what I wrote for the Lebanese magazine Executive 36 hours ago, with an overview of the Egyptian uprising in its regional context. It's mostly still valid, which is a stroke of luck given the volatility:

If one week is a long time in politics, one month can bring as much change as a whole generation. The spark struck in the central Tunisian town of Sidi Bouzid in December first brought down President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, who now languishes in Saudi exile. In a chain reaction, the sudden and unexpected collapse of authoritarian rule in Tunisia breathed new hope into opponents of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who have struggled for years to muster mass support for their democratic agenda. Now hundreds of thousands of Egyptians have risen up too, overturning the conventional wisdom that autocrats in the Arab world have mastered the dark arts of political survival more successfully than anywhere else in the world. One way or the other, the Middle East will never be the same again.

Egypt and Tunisia had much in common – high youth unemployment, brutal repression by police thuggery, economic growth that stubbornly refused to trickle down, and paralyzed political systems based on ruling parties that tried to give a facade of respectability to crony capitalism. The Tunisian opposition that helped drive Ben Ali into exile on January 14 has made great progress towards ensuring that the old guard of the ruling RCD party cannot salvage many of the privileges it enjoyed for the past 23 years. In Egypt the battle for the future is still raging, and the latest developments are strong indications that the old guard of the regime will cling to power with some tenacity, possibly at the cost of much more blood among young Egyptians determined to make a clean break with the past.

For the moment Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, 82 years old and in power for three decades, has sacrificed his own son's presidential ambitions and a prime minister with an enviable record as an economic manager, all for the sake of fending off a challenge from the streets that by Friday looked close to triumph. In only four days overt opposition to Mubarak, once the preserve of a few marginal politicians, internet activists and the cowed Islamists of the Muslim Brotherhood, has flourished into a mass movement with no clear leadership, little coordination and a simple agenda – “overthrow the regime”. When tens of thousands of Egyptians flooded across the Nile bridges into central Cairo at sunset on Friday, routing one of the world's largest police forces dedicated to suppressing protests, it looked like Mubarak was on the run. The headquarters of the ruling National Democratic Party was in flames and many jubilant Egyptians were welcoming the arrival of the army as their saviour.

But Mubarak, slow and stubborn but still wily, had more tricks up his sleeve. For the first time in his long reign, he appointed a vice-president, in the person of security adviser and intelligence chief General Omar Suleiman, a man whose public statements have been as rare as Cairo rain. Then he named an old air force associate, former Civilian Aviation Minister Ahmed Shafik, as prime minister, jettisoning technocrat Ahmed Nazif and his team of liberal economists. Suleiman's appointment is another nail in the coffin for any plans for his deeply unpopular son Gamal to take over the reins of power - plans that were transparent despite all the official denials.

It was a classic containment tactic, a circling of the wagons as the enemy advanced. With the army in the streets to reassure ordinary Egyptians who hated and despised the police force, Mubarak was surrounding himself with old military colleagues he trusted would think twice about advising him that it was time to follow Ben Ali into ignominious exile. He has not yet pacified the street, and opposition politicians have dismissed the appointments as too little too late, just like the last-minute concessions with which the Tunisian president tried to save his skin. For the moment the army is fraternising on the streets with thousands of protesters telling Mubarak to go. The future of Egypt, and possibly the whole Middle East, now depends on the dynamics of that fragile and shallow alliance between the army and the people. It seems unlikely that the people will just give up without violence, so will the army turn on the people or will it turn on Mubarak?

A successful revolution in Egypt, coupled with that in Tunisia, could be a beacon of light for the Arab world, even herald a shift in international geopolitics. Army-backed repression would be a throwback to the dark days of the 1950s, when the current autocratic governments were born.

[Rock N' Rollin' Man]

Source: arabist.net/blog

The man on the front page of today's al-Masri al-Youm is a national hero. He's an army officer who decided to join the protestors (he hadn't been part of those deployed in Cairo). I spoke to him about what he and the Egyptian people wanted here's the video. Again, please translate it in the comments if you have time, but a summary is below.

His demands, in brief:

The end of the Mubarak regime and its apparatchiks

Constitutional reform

Free and fair elections

No more presidencies for life

An honest police force "like any developed country"

Comment Section:

Keep it up Issandr, wish I was there.

Officer:

Right now, we have specific demands:

Number one - for the Mubarak regime to leave - completely - beginning with himself, and ending with the most junior person in his regime.

Interviewer:

In a peaceful way.

Officer:

Of course, in a peaceful way. We are a white [peaceful] revolution. Number two, God willing, an interim goverment will be implemented, through which we will change the constitution which was previously put together for particular purposes, to a constitution which is in line with the aspirations of the Egyptian people, God willing-

Interviewer:

Including changing the Emergency Law.

Officer:

And number three, to have transparent elections, to choose somebody that we want - subject to elections that one hundred percent transparent, and whover rules us will do so for a limited term, like any modern state. Nobody will rule us for his whole life, because he's no better than any one of us. To rule us for a specific period, to take us forward a specific step in our history, no further, like any modern state. But - a final comment - we appeal to the Egyptian people, if in the next period there is disorder, we are - we are respectable and well-behaved and civil, and have the best upbringing. God willing we will organise the traffic, we will clean the streets, we will serve each other. The police apparatus will not leave a vacuum [in their absence]!

-Ali the Mahd

[spidersandsnakes]

WTF? You quoted his post.

So you don't believe Iran has or is extremely close to having nuclear (and almost certainly currently have biological) weapons and the capacity to deliver them in a matter of minutes with the close proximity in which they exist?

Because that would make you more than just a little clueless.

I quoted his post, NOT his name....only as reference ........funny that when we speak out about global warning (which is THE REAL menace and no-one wants to believe it!!!!), people dismiss it as... "it's only conspiracy talk...." and when some people talk about Iran and nukes we all have to believe it....NOW LET'S COME OFF IT WITH ALL THIS POLITICALLY UNCORRECT BLABBER:)

[spidersandsnakes]

Yes and change for the better happens.

rIGHT ON:):)

[spidersandsnakes]

Here come the conspiracy theories.

To this post I can only answer......................

By blackglove at 2011-01-31

[spidersandsnakes]

Hi 'Rock N' Rollin' Man'

Thanks for the info.

The only thing that really matters is that Egypt returns a Government that is Pro West, any thing else like a Fundamentalist Regime will mean the War against Zionism is back on and Israel will be the next target, well they will need to attack someone to appease the Extremists who get them in wont they? And the America's aren't going to tolerate that are they?

Regards, Danny

PS, I'm not planning a holiday there any time soon.

Yes, it's fine with me, BUT at the same time Israel should start dropping it's REVOLTING foreign policies which practically can be interpreted as..."we hate all Arab states.....", shouldn't they? HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM???!!

[TypeO]

I quoted his post, NOT his name....

Honesty prevents me from saying this is the most asinine response I have ever read in a discussion here.

But it's easily in the top 3.

Maybe if you increase the font size even more...

Yes, it's fine with me, BUT at the same time Israel should start dropping it's REVOLTING foreign policies which practically can be interpreted as..."we hate all Arab states.....", shouldn't they? HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM???!!

"practically can be interpreted as"?

That's the problem with interpretations - people choose them.

Where's your revulsion with Ahmadinejad's publicly stated wish to wipe Israel off the face of the earth?

No "interpretation" necessary there.

That's pretty specific with little to interpret.

Why don't you find THAT "revolting"?

[Rock N' Rollin' Man]

http://jnthnwrght.blogspot.com/

Who's in Tahrir Square, and what next?

The professional and managerial middle classes -- the ones who launched the Egyptian uprising last Tuesday -- remain very much a presence among the hard core of protesters in Tahrir Square, judging by my tour of the area on Sunday night and Monday morning. I met dentists, middle managers, IT engineers and businessmen, all of them committed to driving President Mubarak out of office. Except for members of the Muslim Brotherhood, who are a significant but not dominant element in the protest movement, most of them did not claim to have any formal political affiliation. Surprisingly, as I am writing in my informal capacity as a contributor to Reuters, support for Mohamed ElBaradei, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, was rather unenthusiastic, though I suspect that in the end he would prove an acceptable transitional figure if people were confident that Mubarak and his associates were well and truly defeated. The key to the next few days remains the opaque manoeuvrings at the top of the military-security establishment, where the main players are Mubarak, Vice President Omar Suleiman, prime minister-designate Ahmed Shafik and caretaker defence minister Tantawi. The status of caretaker interior minister Habib el-Adli is opaque. The fact that Mubarak included him in a meeting yesterday suggests Mubarak is deaf to the street - a worrying sign.

If Mubarak is still in power at noon on Friday, it could be a very bloody day. Read the following statement from an unknown group called the Youth of the Revolution:

"We the people and the youth of Egypt demand from our brothers in the national armed forces to outline their position clearly and without ambiguity. They must either take the side of millions of Egyptians protesting or stand in the camp of the regime. We await a response to this statement from now until Thursday, February 3, bearing in mind that if no response is given, it means bias towards the regime, at which point we call on

all Egyptians to protest on February 4 for the 'Friday of Departure' after Friday prayers. Finally, we call on people to march to the presidential palace and parliament building and the state broadcast building in millions across Egypt ... to impose the wished of the Egyptian people."

I have no idea who is behind this, but the logic is unassailable and the same plan must be taking shape in the minds of those committed to seeing the revolution through. There may be no other way, despite the inevitable bloodshed. Then the army would have to come off the fence.

[Silver Rider]

If Egypt were the United States the people could simply vote Mubarak out of office and enjoy a smooth transition of power.

[spidersandsnakes]

Update by the ONLY LEGIT representaTives of EgYpt.......THE PEOPLE:):)!!!

Targeting: Ambassador Sameh Shoukry (السفير سامح شكري), President Hosni Mubarak (الرئيس حسني مبارك), General Habib Ibrahim El Adly (حبيب ابراهيم العادلي‎), see more...Ambassador Sameh Shoukry (السفير سامح شكري), President Hosni Mubarak (الرئيس حسني مبارك), General Habib Ibrahim El Adly (حبيب ابراهيم العادلي‎), and Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq (احمد محمد شفيق‎) Started by: The January 25 Movement حركة يناير ٢٥On January 25, we the people of Egypt took to the streets to demand our rights! We are not unified by one party, class or religion: we are not Muslim and we are not Christian, we are not rich and we are not poor - we are the multifaceted people of Egypt - Muslims and Christian's and Egyptians of all classes. We demand our civil, political and human rights. We demand the immediate resignation of the president and parliament. We demand a new constitution. We demand free and fair...

On January 25, we the people of Egypt took to the streets to demand our rights! We are not unified by one party, class or religion: we are not Muslim and we are not Christian, we are not rich and we are not poor - we are the multifaceted people of Egypt - Muslims and Christian's and Egyptians of all classes.

We demand our civil, political and human rights.

We demand the immediate resignation of the president and parliament.

We demand a new constitution.

We demand free and fair elections.

We demand the complete and total release of all political prisoners and detainees.

We demand the return of open access to all communication networks.

We demand that the police stop shooting at us, stop their brutality and stop their attacks on journalists.

We are the January 25 movement, and we are not going to stop until our demands are met! We call on Egyptians and internationals to lend a hand and help us win by signing this petition, which will be sent to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, officials in the interior and foreign ministries, and Egyptian embassies all over the world.

[spidersandsnakes]

If Egypt were the United States the people could simply vote Mubarak out of office and enjoy a smooth transition of power.

Oh sure, like the INNOCENT 4 victims of Kent Univesity during the Nam war on May 4th, 1970......or perhaps you'd like to believe that if the people were to vote, they would send Mubarak out....as if election trix were not used to undo the peoples' power, let alone if a RIGHT-WING CULPRIT like Mubarak would allow free elections in the first place....LET'S COME OFF IT.....it's about time:)

[Silver Rider]

Oh sure, like the INNOCENT 4 victims of Kent Univesity during the Nam war on May 4th, 1970......or perhaps you'd like to believe that if the people were to vote, they would send Mubarak out....as if election trix were not used to undo the peoples' power, let alone if a RIGHT-WING CULPRIT like Mubarak would allow free elections in the first place....LET'S COME OFF IT.....it's about time:)

Even so, in the United States we have better recourse, courtesy of the founding fathers' checks and balances.

And even though the National Guard acted, Kent State concerned problems with local government where the mayor of the city, Leroy Satrom, declared a state of emergency and requested the Ohio National Guard to intervene, and Nixon later resigned.

If the people in Egypt had the same options, they could more easily resolve this conflict.

[spidersandsnakes]

Even so, in the United States we have better recourse, courtesy of the founding fathers' checks and balances.

And Kent State concerned problems with local government, not the main head of state.

Yes, but further reports on the KENT state ASSASSINATIONs show that the "main head of state" DID NOT MOVE a finger to PUNISH the RIGHT-WING National Guard (does National Guard ring any Sadaam Hussein similarities????:)) who BRUTALLY MURDERED those 4 innocent kids just because they were protesting against the sickest of wars??!! I think NOT:)

Founding Fathers? I wouldn't exclude some bill being passed in the U.S. to label the respected and respectful legit Sons&Daughters of the American REvolution as TERRORISTS!!:)

Lest we all forget....

By blackglove at 2011-01-29

[Silver Rider]

Yes, but further reports on the KENT state ASSASSINATIONs show that the "main head of state" DID NOT MOVE a finger to PUNISH the RIGHT-WING National Guard (does National Guard ring any Sadaam Hussein similarities????:)) who BRUTALLY MURDERED those 4 innocent kids just because they were protesting against the sickest of wars??!! I think NOT:)

Founding Fathers? I wouldn't exclude some bill being passed in the U.S. to label the respected and respectful legit Sons&Daughters of the American REvolution as TERRORISTS!!:)

Lest we all forget....

By blackglove at 2011-01-29

I know a person who was there when it happened, so I will never forget. But, the main head of state then, Nixon, resigned in the wake of three articles of impeachment approved by the House Judiciary Committee on Tuesday, July 30, 1974. And even if such a bill were to pass, it could be repealed. But today in Egypt they lack those avenues.

[spidersandsnakes]

But today in Egypt they lack those avenues.

Thanks to the likes of Mubarak and his right-wing mob!!!!:)

[Silver Rider]

Thanks to the likes of Mubarak and his right-wing mob!!!!:)

They need George Washington's equivalent. He was a peaceful man who only fought tyranny. And Egypt could benefit from their own equivalent of the ingenious checks and balances that have kept the Uniited States whole despite much turmoil.

[spidersandsnakes]

I know a person who was there when it happened, so I will never forget. But, the main head of state then, Nixon, was impeached and removed from power. And even if such a bill were to pass, it could be repealed. But today in Egypt they lack those avenues.

Let's put it another way......if those lads of the National Guard who opened fire to kill had been blacks, they would have been fried already...get what I mean??!:)

[Silver Rider]

Let's put it another way......if those lads of the National Guard who opened fire to kill had been blacks, they would have been fried already...get what I mean??!:)

You probably would have seen a different response, given the element of racism in society. But racism does not seem to be a primary element in Egypt's conflict today, where it appears to be more of a problem with the way power is concentrated in one individual's dictatorship, except maybe for the racism experienced by African migrants and especially if it is poverty-related. Dissatisfaction flowing from poverty seems to be the main catalyst for the civil unrest in Egypt today.