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TULedHead

The Next President of the USA will be?

Who will win the Presidency in 2008?  

282 members have voted

  1. 1. Who Wins in 2008?

    • Hillary Clinton
      47
    • Rudy Giuliani
      9
    • John Edwards
      7
    • Mike Huckabee
      7
    • John McCain
      42
    • Barack Obama
      136
    • Ron Paul
      21
    • Mitt Romney
      9
    • Bill Richardson
      1
    • Fred Thompson
      3


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I heard most of the people showed up for free beer and a free concert by popular reggae musician Patrice and the rock band Reamonn.

Free beer!

Hell I'd go to that even if Rush Limbaugh, Jesse Jackson or Ralph Nadar were giving the speech. :D

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Sean Hannity, that little fat-faced shithead, is whining about how 2008 is the year journalism died because all the press is with Obama overseas right now. That's completely ignoring the fact that McCain didn't invite the press with him, even though he could have (and should have). So now everyone's whining about how the media is in Obama's pocket.

What a bunch of weenies.

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Did you guys know that the first people to protest our suspension of the Geneva Convention were the U.S. military and the FBI?

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^ :rolleyes: This isn't even a challenge anymore.....

Politicians, Dem, Repub, purple, green ,blue = snake oil salesmen.

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Than why does Obama only has a 2% lead on McCain right now. Why is it not 20%

2%? :lol:

20%?? slapface.gif

[:rolleyes:]

Allow me to spell it out for you,.. step-by-simple-step,.. Pipeboy.

[let's see if your attention span, and your brain cell, can handle it. ;) ]

1. Looking at the 2000 and 2004 presidential election results, it's readily apparent that America is ideologically divided almost right down the middle: 50/50 Rep/Dem*. Evidence of this split: Bush beat Gore and Kerry by very slim margins; specifically, the margin of victory for Bush over Gore was <1%, and the margin of victory for Bush over Kerry was 3%.

2. Republicans make up approx 49.5% of the electorate (avg of 2000 and 2004 repub%), and most of them are simply not going to vote for Obama no matter what. They will not vote for Obama no matter how well his campaign is going; no matter how poorly John McCain's campaign is going; and no matter how poorly the republican party has done over the past 8 years. Approx 49.5% of the ideologically sharply divided electorate (the remarkably myopic half of the electorate *wink*) is going to vote for McCain no matter what. If, that is, they bother to show up to vote on election day**.

3. Therefore,.. given that almost half of the electorate is not going to vote for Obama no matter what,.. it's not very realistic to expect Obama to open up a 20% lead in national polls. Ergo,.. the question "why isn't Obama leading by 20%?" is a red herring. :rolleyes:

-------------------------

* It's not quite 50/50 Rep/Dem split though because third-party candidates need

to be factored in. For example, in 2000 the split was 48/48/4 Rep/Dem/Other.

2000 results:

Gore: 50,996,116 (votes); 48%; 266 (Elect. Coll votes)

Bush: 50,456,169 (votes); 48%; 271 (Elect. Coll votes)

Other: 3,874,040 (votes); 4%; 0 (Elect. Coll votes)

in 2000, a <1% margin of victory amounted to a victory by 5 Elect Coll votes.

2004 results:

Bush: 62,040,606 (votes); 51%; 286 (Elect. Coll votes)

Kerry: 59,028,109 (votes); 48%; 252 (Elect. Coll votes)

Other: 411,304 (votes); 1%; 0 (Elect. Coll votes)

in 2004, a 3% margin of victory amounted to a victory by 32 Elect Coll votes.

[in 2008, a 7.8% margin of victory could amount to a (landslide) victory by 80+ Elect Coll votes. ;) ]

** Dems are genuinely enthusiastic, excited, and inspired by the prospect of an Obama presidency; that's going to translate into enormous (perhaps record-setting) voter turnout for Obama. Conversely, repubs are not the least bit enthused by McCain, nor are many ofd them pleased with the last 8 years of republican leadership; although they are disenchanted with their party, and are unenthusiastic about their candidate, repubs will still vote for McCain,.. but it's very likely that many repubs will not even bother to vote on election day.. AND.. it's also very likely that a few % of the repubs who do show up to vote will vote for third party conservative candidate BOB BARR. Therefore, it's reasonable to presume that whatever % McCain gets in national polls, 2-3% can be deducted because they'll go to Bob Barr, and a few more % can be deducted to account for repubs who won't bother to vote at all. ;)

-------------------------

With all that in mind.. howzabout we take a look at the

"P-51 sanctioned" poll source *RealClearPolitcis.com*..

..a source that looks at the major national polls..

GE7_25.jpg

Obama leads anywhere from 1% (ie, a narrow Elect Coll victory).. as reported by FOX

Noise.. to 7% (ie, a landslide Electoral College victory).. as reported by Reuters/Zogby.

Even in the Rasmussen poll that you were touting a few days ago that showed Obama's

lead as a mere 2%,.. shows him having gained another 3% in that poll.. now at 5%.

The average of all the major national polls shows Obama with a lead of 4.8%.

[1.8% more than Bush defeated Gore by; and 4.2% more than Bush defeated Kerry by.]

Add the third party Bob Barr Factor (-3% for McCain), and Obama leads by 7.8%.

7.8% correlates to a landslide electoral college victory for Barack Obama.

[4.6% more than Gore defeated Kerry by; 7.2% more than Bush defeated Gore by. B) ]

..and that's not even accounting for low republican voter turnout. Factoring low republican voter turnout into the equation,.. it's plausible that Obama could win by as much as 9%.. perhaps winning by as many as 100 Electoral College votes!

..and that's all based on Obama's current 4.8% average lead in the polls.. according the poll source (RealClearPolitics.com) that's been sanctioned by our friend and diehard McCaniac,.. P-51. With every tick that Obama's average lead increases in the polls, you can extrapolate what that could mean to the election results in November.

Yes, indeed,.. the polls are looking good for Obama. :thumbsup:

Oh,.. and btw, Pb,.. according to *RealClearPolitics.com*..

Rassmussen shows Obama ahead by 28%, and

the Field poll shows Obama ahead by 24%..

..in California. :D

:hippy:

Edited by Hermit_

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given that almost half of the electorate is not going to vote for Obama no matter what,.. it's not very realistic to expect Obama to open up a 20% lead in national polls. Ergo,.. the question "why isn't Obama leading by 20%?" is a red herring. :rolleyes:

But when you factor in all the indepedents and traditional democrats who will never vote for Obama either....

A McCain landslide it the result.

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But when you factor in all the indepedents and traditional democrats who will never vote for Obama either....

A McCain landslide it the result.

"traditional democrats" who will never vote for Obama? :lol:

If by "traditional democrats" you mean "Dixicrats".. you might consider that those who used to identify themselves as Dixicrats have long since departed dem party and they're republicans now.. you know, because their racism and intolerance fits better with republican party values than with the democratic party values. And.. I would've thought it'd go without saying, but apparently not.. no one expects Dixi-repubs to vote for Obama. Besides,.. those Dixi-repubs of whom you speak are already showing in the polls as being part of the 39%-46% who are supporting McCain.. so your point is moot anyway.

I realize, Del, that you repubs are desperately resting your hopes on "all the indepedents and [Dixicrats] who will never vote for Obama",.. but the reality is that Obama has already written off the votes of Dixi-repub racists, and he has every bit as much of a chance of getting independent votes as McCain does.

The fact of the matter is that all the major national polls are showing STRONG and CONSISTENT democratic party support for Obama; thus his consistent 41%-49% showing in the polls. ;)

And, my friend, you can take it to the bank that dems who are participating in polls ARE going to show up to vote on election day... unlike repubs who are participating in polls but who won't bother to vote on election day.

An Obama landslide is the result. B)

:beer:

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:rolleyes:

Gee, let's show Obama in ceremonial garb to further drive home the point you think he's Muslim and therefore not fit to be President. Because that's not shameless fear-mongering AT ALL.

:rolleyes:

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Pb, if you're not going to spell correctly, your suggestion that someone

else has their head up their ass is going to bite you in.. well.. yours. :rolleyes:

A quick and easy lesson for.. you:

"your" is possessive; and would properly be used to indicate that

*the head belonging to you is up the ass belonging to you*.

"you're" is a contraction meaning "you are"; and would properly

be used in indicating that *you are a totally clueless dunce*.

Capisca? ;)

:P

[Of course I don't mean "you" personally is those examples;

I mean "you" generically, Pipeboy. Yeah,.. that's the ticket. :whistling: ]

^_^

----------------

Obama draws tens of thousands.. and hundreds of thousands..

at arenas and outdoor rallies around the country and the world..

Obama%20throng.jpg

obama_portland.jpg

barack-obama-crowd-xcel-center-minnesota.jpg

2280871049_af805fb254_o.jpg

:cheer:

While John McCain draws.. (literally).. "about a dozen" at..

mcfudge.jpg

:coffee:

Edited by Hermit_

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A fudge haus? I bet there's some good homemade fudge in there.

I heard McCain had the fudge without nuts.

You know.. because it's easier on his gums.

[Then again,.. it could be just another one of those

toothless.. erm, baseless.. internet rumors, I s'ppose. :whistling:]

ToothlessOldMan.jpg

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Oh wait, I shouldn't have said "haus". That's not an English word and someone here might admonish me and tell me to learn English. :rolleyes:

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:rolleyes:

Gee, let's show Obama in ceremonial garb to further drive home the point you think he's Muslim and therefore not fit to be President. Because that's not shameless fear-mongering AT ALL.

:rolleyes:

Thats not the picture that was released by the clintons this year. The pic you are thinking of was taken two years ago. This is completly different. Im not sure when and what he is wearing

Pb, if you're not going to spell correctly, your suggestion that someone

else has their head up their ass is going to bite you in.. well.. yours. :rolleyes:

A quick and easy lesson for.. you:

"your" is possessive; and would properly be used to indicate that

*the head belonging to you is up the ass belonging to you*.

"you're" is a contraction meaning "you are"; and would properly

be used in indicating that *you are a totally clueless dunce*.

Capisca? ;)

:P

[Of course I don't mean "you" personally is those examples;

I mean "you" generically, Pipeboy. Yeah,.. that's the ticket. :whistling: ]

^_^

----------------

Obama draws tens of thousands.. and hundreds of thousands..

at arenas and outdoor rallies around the country and the world..

Obama%20throng.jpg

obama_portland.jpg

barack-obama-crowd-xcel-center-minnesota.jpg

2280871049_af805fb254_o.jpg

:cheer:

While John McCain draws.. (literally).. "about a dozen" at..

mcfudge.jpg

:coffee:

I found it on photobucket.

My offer still stands hermit.

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I found it on photobucket.

My offer still stands hermit.

You posted it.

You made an offer? ..When? Where? :blink:

[does your offer still stand.. on its own?

You know,.. without a cane or a walker? :unsure:]

:P

Btw,.. you asked a question about Obama not having a 20% lead in the polls, and I responded to your question. Have you any reactions, thoughts, insights, or counter-arguments you'd like to share? Or have I stumped you.. yet again? :whistling:;)

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"traditional democrats" who will never vote for Obama? :lol:

If by "traditional democrats" you mean "Dixicrats".. you might consider that those who used to identify themselves as Dixicrats have long since departed dem party and they're republicans now..

No actually I was talking about the same DEMOCRATS who elected G.W.Bush..... TWICE!

You know, those Democrats in rural counties of Ohio and other good American places who really don't think that two men should be married or just don't like flippy floppy anti-American beliefs....

You know, 'real Americans' who happen to be Democrats.

:whistling:

USAToday2000countymap.gif

2000

counties-2004.gif

2004

Yep, REAL Americans

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Hi all,

^ :rolleyes: This isn't even a challenge anymore.....

Politicians, Dem, Repub, purple, green ,blue = snake oil salesmen.

Hickory,the nail has been squarely hit on the head!Domo! :D

KB(That,made my day better)

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