rm2551
-
Posts
3,037 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by rm2551
-
-
4 hours ago, SteveAJones said:
NO ONE is going to get into a nuclear war over Ukraine. No one is going to go to war with Russia if the action gets too close to the border with Poland. Russia takes a little more of Ukraine with each passing day, and they offensive has been relatively light compared to what they are capable of. It's clear Putin's first plan was not to go scorched earth, but the longer this drags on the greater the likelihood that he opts to bomb it back to the Stone Age.
I 95% agree with this Steve. Laying siege to all major cities and crushing all resistance though is not a winner longer term as sanctions will be biting a LOT more, and information leaks into the population via the younger "hip" Russians and the mothers who sooner or later will be getting the news of their sons deaths will bite HARD. Both sides do NOT want this to drag on for months as it is a disaster for both sides. Obvious disaster for Ukraine, and disaster for Russia in terms of longer term damage Putin wreaks on Russian society and what he views as his "great power and standing" in the world - which was already a thinly veiled joke mostly propped up by the west being soft and stupid (in regards to him). Still, the most likely scenario IMHO.
He is going to need to go to plan B - which will be turn the entire country into Aleppo and declare victory. Setting Ukraine back generations to rebuild, saving face (lying outright about how the mission was completed successfully) and saving his own power, and essentially kicking the can of Russian expansionism down the road to the next chump who takes power. So pretty much like you say.
My hunch is though (my 5% different view...), he is just to detached and paranoid (the dictators curse) and will mis-calculate - make a move that is not acceptable, shifting emphasis from the west from not declaring red lines to announcing they crossed it and the game changes. This move will be going the tactical nuke or chemical weapon, or just a significant military blunder. The west will call his bluff, directly assist Ukraine. Not attack Russia itself, but attack invaders in Ukraine. The west will sell this as not an escalation of their making, and make it clear this was Putin's choice. It will be in Putin's court to deal with. I don't believe he'll then go the full nuketard. Or more accurately, his orders would be disobeyed and he would be "removed" from office if he tried.
But who knows, it's fun armchair quarterbacking, but most likely this will play out not like anyone imagines.
The biggest takeaway for me from this event is NATO and even the domestic US political sphere really was far more united, and very quickly. I don't think anyone saw that. This really does seem to cut through as a basic good vs. evil story for the most part. That won't continue, and is way over simplified, but in essence, not wrong. Nato has taken 2 good steps forward instead of 1 step forward and 2 steps back as they usually do you could say.
Oh, and it really doesn't look good for those that only saw strength and "leadership" in the man. Those clowns are all silent thank fuck.
-
3 hours ago, cryingbluerain said:
Where did they get their info from, Alex Vindman?
Wasn't he one of the only voices that more accurately predicted the Ukrainians would fight and it would not at all be as one sided as all (most) of the other pundits were saying? - and yes, including intelligence services in the west. I'd say maybe they should have listened to him a bit more.
There was intel failure in they failed to recognise the position Ukraine was in and how they had been aware of and preparing for Russian aggression for a few years (see the advisors interview years before, he pretty much laid out exactly what come to pass, quite amazing). The IC did however, have it right when they repeatedly stated Russia was about to invade.
The big question now is - is Vlad cornered enough that he will escalate to chemical or tactical nuke? NATO are correct not to provide "red lines" as they are a red flag to a bull, but it may well be (and should be) the undeclared red line. If Putin escalates to that level, I think NATO is all in. Not to directly attack Russia, but attack any foreign unwanted troops in Ukraine. Get out of Ukraine or face NATO attack while there. Then shit gets real. US top brass who have direct connections to Russian top brass then need to agree there is no point on destroying the world - orders or not. Not very reassuring.
I don't think it is wise to let Putin keep drawing the boundaries of this conflict. Sooner or later there needs to be parameters imposed by the west. As dangerous as that is.
-
-
8 hours ago, chillumpuffer said:
Marijuana really is a fabulous medicine.
Facts.
-
-
52 minutes ago, LedZeppfan1977 said:
i should have clarified intelligent life. OK. If they find micro organisms like amoeba's or protozoa, that is not what I mean. As for the ghosts thing, I do believe in the devil and in angels
Aaaaaah, ok. I still say intelligent life within our solar system apart from our own is possible. Even intelligence within our own "system" with limited - or masked interaction is possible. Also, whales bro, whales. (pigs, dogs, birds, etc.)
BTW - no disrespect meant by this.
-
33 minutes ago, LedZeppfan1977 said:
I do not believe there is life in our solar system. No way
Apart from that, 100% - but the oceans known to exist under Europa may yet prove other "life" independently exists in parallel to our own - planet?
-
11 hours ago, cryingbluerain said:
Very cringeworthy no matter which side of the fence you're on.
Never a truer word spoken, I think all would agree. Which is hilarious and tragic.
-
The thing that sticks in my craw is, if Jimmy had multiple releases planned (or those type of "projects" being considered), and one was the "Early Days, Latter Days" original idea of live stuff, does that mean latter days would be something different from Knebworth? And if so, could it be Copenhagen SB's that Jimmy has, and was thinking of cleaning up and mastering??? Maybe even a few tracks from 1980 (of which there are 3 or 4 probably worth the effort). And for that matter, maybe Jim still has hold of the LA soundboards. The more I think about it the more it bugs me - to put it mildly.
-
If Percy is actually holding up Jimmy on releasing live material, that is a travesty. Yeah we have all the boots, and yeah, Jimmy chops and edits, BIG DEAL - it's still official releases. I don't want to believe it's true....
-
11 hours ago, chillumpuffer said:
for more worthwhile projects.
I'm thinking a bit more about a project myself. Just can't afford disclosure (he says as he posts to a public forum, yah, I get the irony
) not to mention the space to allocate is not really there. Still.....
-
15 hours ago, hummingbird69 said:
I was that close to posting that exact message.
-
Humid. Still rains (or tries to) sometimes literally for no more than a minute. Nights are getting quite cool now. If only my firewood and kindling were dry enough to use - and skies were clear on the right weekend nights....
Can't do anything worth doing in this shit weather.
-
2 hours ago, BobDobbs said:
Yes, but that is not the strangest aspects. It has a perfect, uniform "mountain range" running the entire equator, 8 miles high, no deviation north or south. One side is black, the other extremely reflective (it is not locked, it rotates so no dark side as a result of not being in sun) and when they sent x-rays they bounced off. I believe all readings and measurements have been exclusively visual as every type of scanner just bounces off.
Not saying this is some ancient, artificial satellite or generational ship from some long ago race billions of years in the past. Nope, not me. However, anything this weird which according to planetary physics & mechanics should not and cannot exist naturally needs a bit of consistent scientific inquiry. If such an anomaly is natural it would re-write the book on planetary physics which I think would be a pretty big deal.
That sounds fascinating, got any references to good short vid's or info on it?
-
10 hours ago, hummingbird69 said:
Giger is the wildest stuff I have ever seen.
Absolutely! The world he creates is endlessly fascinating.
-
14 hours ago, redrum said:
Facebook and Instagram users in some countries will be allowed to call for violence against Russians and Russian soldiers in the context of the Ukraine invasion, after parent company Meta made a temporary change to its hate speech policy.
Hate speech policy. So if that has a price, then what?
-
On 3/11/2022 at 12:26 AM, hummingbird69 said:
Findley has crazy skills. Is there a Rock cover that has Giger? Surely none would dare....
-
On 3/9/2022 at 12:24 AM, paul carruthers said:
Definitely also in the running for strongest ever.
Far Kernel.
-
8 hours ago, custard pie man said:
suffice to say, after 2 years of rehab i'm doing better, have 2 kids getting married this year, no rear view mirror for me, looking forward and yes, will never get another one again
Mate, if you are 50+ I recommend you find a better practitioner and do the recommended checks. There is a damn good reason for them. Bowel cancer is one of the absolute worst. I'm not looking forward to my next one, but I sure as hell ain't going to risk not picking something up that likely will turn into literally my worst nightmare. My Grandfather died from it when I was quite young. I vaguely remember seeing him once in hospital. Thankfully my strongest memory of him was dressed dapper and telling funny stories to us.
Congrats on getting hitched.
-
Petrol now 2 bucks a litre. near on $110 to fill my Mazda 6. News says it could go to 3 bucks a litre.
-
14 hours ago, custard pie man said:
20mg of xarelto, happened after a routine colonoscopy, was in 2 hospitals for 1 week, thought had heart attack or blockage cuz I couldn't walk or climb stairs, after c scans and battery of tests was dismissed and 3 days later leg swelled up, back to hospital, cat scan revealed lungs were loaded, something happened while i was knocked out, no one will investigate or sue, doing better now but was messed up for over 2 years
That's fucked up, sorry to hear CPman. I had my own horror story from my last colonoscopy. Felt like they used a freakin' IMax camera! I was cactus for a week, couldn't sit. Very painful.
-
back to more rain. News says more storms and floods coming. 2 years ago the entire country was on fire, now we are under water. Fucks sake....
-
Bruce Parker, you certainly do win at life! Well done.
-
11 hours ago, 1975NQ said:
then have it be Charlie Brown or something like that
Excellent idea! LOL....
) not to mention the space to allocate is not really there. Still.....
Astronomy - Planets , Stars & Heavenly Bodies
in Ramble On
Posted
The question then is, do we get there as a species. Now that stretches my optimism to it's limits.