Del Zeppnile Posted August 19, 2008 Share Posted August 19, 2008 By using this calculator select the states you feel will go either Republican or Democrat based on your interpretation of the polling trends or other factors, and post your predictions here: http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ev/ McCain = 274 Obama = 264 (270 is needed to win) * I based my calculation on the polling data that shows McCain is currently leading in Ohio by a +1.5 margin while continuing to trend upwards since June, while Obama is trending downward in that state. Other factors I assumed in battleground states are that McCain will win Florida, Virginia, Nevada and Indiana (Indiana as usual for Republican canidates). But Obama will win New Mexico and Iowa this year, as opposed to G. Bush's win in those two states in 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cryingbluerain Posted August 19, 2008 Share Posted August 19, 2008 I can already feel the nervousness and panic around here setting in. Yeah, libs have been awful quiet around here lately.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marolyn Posted August 19, 2008 Share Posted August 19, 2008 I can already feel the nervousness and panic around here setting in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I have got a horsey Posted August 19, 2008 Share Posted August 19, 2008 I still don't care whether McCain or Obama get in, I still think they're both fine candidates and a vast improvement on Bush... A lot of shit gets spread around at election time which is pointless, like Obama isn't American enough or McCain is too old, I mean Reagan was way over-the-hill dribbling into his incontinence pads and he didn't have to do a damn thing for two terms, and still he got plaudits, so you know, can being president really be that hard?? Either McCain or Obama will make a good president, as long as things don't get bogged down into ideological bullshit. We're well past the days when Republican or Democract actually meant anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanna be drummer Posted August 19, 2008 Share Posted August 19, 2008 I still don't care whether McCain or Obama get in, I still think they're both fine candidates and a vast improvement on Bush... A lot of shit gets spread around at election time which is pointless, like Obama isn't American enough or McCain is too old, I mean Reagan was way over-the-hill dribbling into his incontinence pads and he didn't have to do a damn thing for two terms, and still he got plaudits, so you know, can being president really be that hard?? Yes. Look at before presidency and after presidency pics. Generally, theres an increase in wrinkles and gray hair (or white). Its extremely stressful and tiresome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pb Derigable Posted August 19, 2008 Share Posted August 19, 2008 I still got obama winning the electoral but losing the popular vote by 5%. Which by all accounts is too much to still win. After the debates, McCain will have the lead or a tie and the 5% hidden racist vote will push him over. I don't know if that will apply to a smaller section of people as in a state. But i got McCain in OH, PA, MI, and Fl. but will lose some states bush carried in the west. I think you will see totals like in the last election. Like 290 to 250 or somthing. I still stand by my stance of this won't be a close election. Now do I considered a 5% win for McCain close? No. It's tie right now and within a week obama will have a VP and convention bounce. but will only last until the McCain bounce. I predict no more than 3% obama lead after both conventions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanna be drummer Posted August 19, 2008 Share Posted August 19, 2008 Michigans not going Republican anytime soon PB. We'll probably vote Democrat again...and I don't know why since our Democrat governor and mayors all blow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pb Derigable Posted August 20, 2008 Share Posted August 20, 2008 Michigans not going Republican anytime soon PB. We'll probably vote Democrat again...and I don't know why since our Democrat governor and mayors all blow.. Thats where mitt romeny comes in. Anyways, Michigan, just like chicago, has a big union voter base. Our political action funds (PAC)events where at an all time low this year. Why. Nobody wants obama even though our union is fighting for him. Voters turnout for the union around here will be low which will cause many dems in this state to get voted out or lose. Now, my union is a little different than most. Most of our work is refinery, power plants and steel mills. All of which is targets for enviromentel wackos, far left wingers, which is obama base. So what im saying may not be true in all cases. still, Gore won by 5% Kerry by 3% Obama is up by 3% now. People in michigan hunt. Now obama may not be anti gun, but they do know that a all dem led goverment will infinge on thier right to bear arms. Stronger regulations against domestic cars will cause alot of jobs to be lost. Im pretty sure it takes less people to make a 3,000lbs aveo than a 4,500lbs suburban. 100,000 jobs from the big three where cut in the last 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanna be drummer Posted August 20, 2008 Share Posted August 20, 2008 Where did you get that idea? Obama has been one of the most anti gun Senators of all time. Not true. He's pretty gun-control, but not near being the worst of the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanna be drummer Posted August 20, 2008 Share Posted August 20, 2008 He was against the banning of handguns but has reversed his opinion on the matter. He's not as bad as he used to be, thats for damn sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Del Zeppnile Posted August 20, 2008 Author Share Posted August 20, 2008 After the debates, McCain will have the lead or a tie and the 5% hidden racist vote will push him over. I don't know if that will apply to a smaller section of people as in a state. Well I certainly hope there is that 5% in Ohio.... No, just kidding LOL! Don't need to win that way. But i got McCain in OH, PA, MI, and Fl. but will lose some states bush carried in the west. Interesting! I agree with Florida (McCain will get a larger share of the Jewish vote than any other Republican), and like I said before, McCain's trend in Ohio still looks pretty good. But I don't him winning PA and Michigan is looking more like a long shot to for McCain. But if he wins Ohio then Michigan won't matter. I still stand by my stance of this won't be a close election. Now do I considered a 5% win for McCain close? No. Who knows, the polls showing Kerry way ahead seemed pretty silly in the end. My gut has always told me that Obama doesn't have a chance at winning. I think he will make a good showing, but in this modern era that is pretty easy for most Democrats given the almost certain win in every large population state. But if the Dems can't win in Florida and Ohio, they will always come up short. However they could have easily won had they shifted to a much more moderate canidate. They have such a fractured party right now. It's tie right now and within a week obama will have a VP and convention bounce. but will only last until the McCain bounce. I predict no more than 3% obama lead after both conventions. 3% will not be enough for such a far left liberal canidate as Obama. I believe Kerry had a better lead going into November than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cryingbluerain Posted August 20, 2008 Share Posted August 20, 2008 He was against the banning of handguns but has reversed his opinion on the matter. He's not as bad as he used to be, thats for damn sure Seems to do that a lot doesn't he? He blinks on handguns. He blinks on Iraq. He blinks on NAFTA. He blinks on drilling. He blinks on taxes. Change you can believe in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanna be drummer Posted August 20, 2008 Share Posted August 20, 2008 People are allowed to change their minds. Look at McCain from 8 years ago to McCain today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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