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Atlas

The Weather Thread

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I may have to retract the part about Earl's little sister being born late. I note the southern moving front in the mid Atlantic which is likely to push Earl and his little sister down where they can feed on the tropical heat. There will be a third tropical depression in my ocean by this time tomorrow. 95%.

post-10180-007805000 1282886930_thumb.gi

Edited by Atlas

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According to the NWS, my prediction was off. They still don't list the system as a tropical depression. It looks like one from the latest images. It has a clearly defined center and cyclonic motion. Perhaps they have some other criteria such as a maximum central pressure.

Looks as though Danielle is producing some upper level anti-cyclonic exhaust stream which are putting a shear on Earl. That may push Earl further south and weaken him for a day or so. If it does, he will come back with a vengeance, untold. I'm putting an East Coast landfall at 55%.

Danielle is heading out to sea. Perhaps she will visit London? I have a friend heading there as I type.

post-10180-040879800 1283008450_thumb.gi

Edited by Atlas

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This shows that the NHC has continually modified the track of Earl to where he is headed almost directly for me.

This is the message I sent to my family and friends today:

One of my hobbies is to follow hurricane development. The National Weather

Service did a really good job of predicting Danielle which is now heading out to

sea. They have, however, been continually adjusting the predicted path of

Tropical Storm Earl to the south and west. As it stands, they show Earl as a

near miss (projecting out and following the arc).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al07/AL072010_5W_013_A.GIF

Here's the past week of projected locations. Notice how they predicted on

Wednesday morning that Earl would be located about 18N 48W at 8AM

Saturday(today). As it turns out Earl was at 15.8N 51.2W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml

That's not a huge error, but have a look at their latest map (attached). The 'M'

means "major hurricane". If they adjust to the southwest just a tad, we get

really wet.

I believe the reason they have been off is because of the effect of Danielle on

Earl. Hurricanes rotate counterclockwise at the surface, and the air gets sucked

toward the eye-wall. At the eye-wall the air rises rapidly and then moves

outward. As it moves outward, it begins to rotate in a clockwise direction.

This is what I believe is causing Danielle to push Earl to the south and west.

The outflow also produces a wind shear (upper air going in a different direction,

and/or speed from the surface air). That will weaken Earl in the short-term,

which means Earl won't have as much of a "steering force" acting on it. These

steering forces tend to push hurricanes to the northwest.

If you are just dying to know more about these forces, you can look at

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/WWW000/text/B_Gyre2.html

Here's (a really big picture of) what Earl and Danielle looked like on the 26th:

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/477911main_Danielle-Earl-GOES-LARGE.jpg

Now here's the final twist. There is more heat in the ocean further to the south

and west. Hurricanes are driven by the latent heat in the moist air over warm

water. The more heat, the more hurricane.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/

Next Friday could be interesting around here.post-10180-053147300 1283052145_thumb.gi

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This image will probably change, and I can't upload the copy I have, so if you aren't seeing it soon after I post, you aren't seeing what I'm seeing as I post. Notice the clouds moving in from the north. This is why I believe Earl will be deflected to the south. If he hits PR directly, I'm probably gonna get hit.

Ouragan_Earl.gif

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Notice how they moved the projected location of Earl in the last 21 hours. I live just above the 'A' in "VA". I like how they are basically telling us. Never mind that we've been wrong about all the other stuff, Earl's definitely gonna turn away at the last second. Don't worry!

AL072010_5W_018_A.GIF

204613W5_NL_sm.gif

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So there was a tropical cyclone named Gaston that lost it's steam and reverted to a rotating cluster of storms crossing the Atlantic. The NHC is now predicting that this system will become a tropical cyclone again. My question is whether they will call it Gaston, or something "H***..."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF

GASTON CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA AT ANY TIME. THERE

IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT

ABOUT 10 MPH.

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I'm about ready to write Gaston off. These guys at the NHC are bored:

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF

GASTON HAVE DIMINISHED SOME THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

...HOWEVER...APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA AT ANY TIME.

THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES

WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

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Well, we are currently enjoying Hermine's presence in Texas. I was in San Antonio today and there was flooding and winds similar to a low level coastal hurricane. :blink:

I can only imagine what the environment is like further South. The electricity did go down in San Antonio for a while. I don't know if it's back yet. I am VERY glad that I moved farther northwest. B)

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post-10180-036288600 1284243632_thumb.gi

If that system in the Caribbean gets organized, it could do some real damage. That is the hottest part of the Atlantic system right now.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO

THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60

PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE

VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE

RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...

ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

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000

WTNT41 KNHC 121823

TCDAT1

HURRICANE IGOR SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010

130 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE UW-CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE

INDICATE THAT IGOR HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A

CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. THE VISIBLE AND BD-CURVE INFRARED

ENHANCEMENT PICTURES REVEAL A CLEAR 20 NMI DIAMETER EYE WITH A

SURROUNDING INTENSE INNER CORE RING OF -80 DEGREE CELSIUS CLOUD TOP

TEMPERATURES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO

INDICATE SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND

THEN SHOWS A SLIGHT DECREASE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. ALSO...FLUCTUATIONS

IN STRENGTH DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT

THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING THE TIMING OF THESE CYCLES.

THE WIND RADII FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE

INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS

UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1830Z 17.7N 46.1W 115 KT

12HR VT 13/0000Z 17.8N 47.5W 125 KT

24HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 49.8W 125 KT

36HR VT 14/0000Z 18.4N 51.8W 125 KT

48HR VT 14/1200Z 19.0N 53.6W 130 KT

72HR VT 15/1200Z 20.7N 56.7W 130 KT

96HR VT 16/1200Z 22.6N 59.6W 125 KT

120HR VT 17/1200Z 24.5N 62.5W 125 KT

$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN


2:30 PM AST Sun Sep 12

Location: 17.7°N 46.1°W

Max sustained: 135 mph

Moving: W at 14 mph

Min pressure: 950 mb

AL112010_5NLW_018_0.GIF

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Cool and clear with a light breeze right now. I ride my bike to work, so I do get a bit of time outside, but I should spend more. I need time in the forest or I get (more) crazy.

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Sunday morning in Bermuda could be interesting. Today was beautiful! Cool, breezy, and sunny with just enough clouds to make the sky interesting. The sunrise was beautiful. I saw it while downtown in DC. On my way home, the pond where the geese live was especially striking with the first hints of autumn in the leaves.

I notice on my way in that the geese were all standing on a log, on the bank or in shallow water. I figure something must have attacked one of them from under water. Perhaps a snapping turtle. On the way home I saw the same thing. It's interesting that the one lone duck seems to have been adopted by the geese. He was right there in the shallow water with them. Then I noticed one of the geese standing on a log off by himself. He had only one leg.

I also saw the blue heron. He's really shy. Anytime I show the least bit of attention to him, he flies away. The geese seem to trust me. Some of them have seen me almost every (week) day of their lives.

Edited by Atlas

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I feel guilty. I almost feel like the geese are looking to me for protection. I really don't know what to do. There's something that makes a big "splash" sound in the pond, but I have no idea what it is.

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Awesome day. Almost perfect temperature, and a slight breeze with a clear sky.

This morning, on my way to work, a few of the geese were still standing in shallow water, and there was a buzzard circling low over them. The others were gone. This evening on the way home, the geese were not in, or near the pond, but there were four ducks in the pond. I also saw something swimming just under the surface with it's snout sticking up. I couldn't tell if it was a snake, a turtle, or something else.

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Why was it damn near 90 today? On September 19th? I know Indian summer exists, but that's ridiculous. North Carolina is usually a tad more temperate this time of year.

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The weather sure is rough out here in Auckland. Spring is supposed to have started but all I feel is the cold wind, which blows with such force that you either almost fall over while walking down the street or you go temporarily deaf and you hear a sort of "pop" sound in your ears! And then there is the fuckin' rain which makes the place freezing cold! Just when you think the sun is going to come out, there is an overcast! I really feel sorry for the folks living in "Windy Wellington"! Ugh! :angry:

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This could turn into the most damaging storm of the 2010 Atlantic season.

AL152010_5W_001_0.GIF

If it follows the predicted track it will miss the hottest parts, but not by much.

2010265at.jpg

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