War in Ukraine

[redrum]

1 hour ago, JohnOsbourne said:

Mostly shithole countries run by despots and the like. Russia just seems to never learn by invading other countries. They'll probably get their asses kicked in this one too. 

[JohnOsbourne]

51 minutes ago, redrum said:

Mostly shithole countries run by despots and the like. Russia just seems to never learn by invading other countries. They'll probably get their asses kicked in this one too. 

Indeed they are (shit-holes, for the most part).  Does that mean the lives of people who live there mean nothing?  That we have moral panic over a border dispute between two ex-Soviet nations, but show absolutely no concern over far worse human suffering everywhere else?  Really?  That's what we've become?  I fucking hope not.

[kipper]

Unless Russia attacks Alaska, I think we should stay out of this one.

Russia isn't a global threat anyway. China is the big problem.

[SteveAJones]

9 hours ago, JohnOsbourne said:

An instant classic. Someone should come up with a list of all the shit with a higher mortality rate than COVID-19. It would be a very long list.

[SteveAJones]

7 hours ago, JohnOsbourne said:

Indeed they are (shit-holes, for the most part).  Does that mean the lives of people who live there mean nothing?  That we have moral panic over a border dispute between two ex-Soviet nations, but show absolutely no concern over far worse human suffering everywhere else?  Really?  That's what we've become?  I fucking hope not.

All these hand-wringers don't give a shit about Ukraine. Ukraine is just a means to an end, that being regime change in Russia. Orange Man Bad. Putin Bad.

[JohnOsbourne]

7 hours ago, kipper said:

Unless Russia attacks Alaska, I think we should stay out of this one.

Russia isn't a global threat anyway. China is the big problem.

There's no doubt that China is a bigger long-term issue than Russia.  (What we do about it is another question.)  And of course, the leadership of the US and western Europe has driven Russia and China closer together by their moral posturing over Ukraine.  They've just ensured that in any future conflict with China, the Chinese will be supplied by Russia's massive resources.  (Even more shockingly, they've effectively brought India and China closer.)  Pure genius, goes way beyond shooting themselves in the foot. 

The biggest problem, though, is the US/EU has increased the risk of nuclear war, which won't affect Alaska at all.

[JohnOsbourne]

11 hours ago, redrum said:

Mostly shithole countries run by despots and the like. Russia just seems to never learn by invading other countries. They'll probably get their asses kicked in this one too. 

BTW, by any objective measure, the Ukraine qualifies as a shit-hole as well, it has been one of the most corrupt countries in the post-Soviet era, worse than a lot of African nations.  Doesn't mean they deserve to be invaded, of course, but it perhaps explains why so many US and European politicians are "outraged" over all of this.  There is light they don't want shined there.  

[ScarletMacaw]

Interesting story in the Journal today about elderly Holocaust survivors in Ukraine having to be evacuated to Germany:

 

“I can’t believe I’m in Berlin, the capital of Germany,” said Sonya Tartakovskaya, a Holocaust survivor who was evacuated in April.

Ms. Tartakovskaya, who lost her father during World War II, relived the childhood trauma of having to flee under heavy shelling after her hometown of Irpin, just outside Kyiv, came under heavy Russian attack in the early days of the invasion.

The 83-year-old hid in her small apartment during the first three weeks of the campaign as artillery strikes cratered the streets and turned most of the buildings around her house into charred ruins. Heating, water and electricity were cut off and Ms. Tartakovskaya slept in her boots and winter coat, surviving on occasional handouts from a neighbor and a Jewish charity.

...

As Ukraine came under attack, Ms. Kolomoyska, a retired chemist, had a flashback of how her father put her on his knee when she was around six and told her there would be no more fruit to eat as the family fled to Russia to escape the German advance. Two of her elder brothers were killed by German troops.

“I never ever imagined that Russia could wage war on Ukraine, it is simply too horrible to comprehend,” she said.

They now live in Munich, in a former castle that has been converted into a care home run by Catholic nuns.

 

[kipper]

6 hours ago, JohnOsbourne said:

There's no doubt that China is a bigger long-term issue than Russia.  (What we do about it is another question.)  And of course, the leadership of the US and western Europe has driven Russia and China closer together by their moral posturing over Ukraine.  They've just ensured that in any future conflict with China, the Chinese will be supplied by Russia's massive resources.  (Even more shockingly, they've effectively brought India and China closer.)  Pure genius, goes way beyond shooting themselves in the foot. 

The biggest problem, though, is the US/EU has increased the risk of nuclear war, which won't affect Alaska at all.

I'm sure China is rethinking the effectiveness of Russia's military capability--- their nukes aside.  Now with pushing Finland and possibly Sweden into considering joining NATO, how does that help the China/Russia position?  China overestimated Russia's ability, which they ought to also stop for a moment and consider their own limitations. China likes to talk big to their own people about China's mighty navy and air force, but truth be told, Japan still has a more capable Navy and ability to take our some of China's newer ships.

All this means is that with China (with Russia, Iran, and North Korea as their proxies) pushing against the Western and Pacific alliances, there will become a point where we have had enough. Then next thing will be Japan, South Korea, and possibly even Taiwan considering having their own nuclear deterrents, and how will that make China feel?

Now for my off limit political comment on why we are at this point:  When we pulled out of Afghanistan (where we should have never been in the first place anyway) in the manner we did, all we did was signal weakness to Putin and others, so I'm sure he felt now was the best time to make his move. Never show weakness in the face of tyrants. Hasn't history proven this to be true?

[JohnOsbourne]

1 hour ago, kipper said:

I'm sure China is rethinking the effectiveness of Russia's military capability--- their nukes aside.  Now with pushing Finland and possibly Sweden into considering joining NATO, how does that help the China/Russia position?  China overestimated Russia's ability, which they ought to also stop for a moment and consider their own limitations. China likes to talk big to their own people about China's mighty navy and air force, but truth be told, Japan still has a more capable Navy and ability to take our some of China's newer ships.

All this means is that with China (with Russia, Iran, and North Korea as their proxies) pushing against the Western and Pacific alliances, there will become a point where we have had enough. Then next thing will be Japan, South Korea, and possibly even Taiwan considering having their own nuclear deterrents, and how will that make China feel?

Now for my off limit political comment on why we are at this point:  When we pulled out of Afghanistan (where we should have never been in the first place anyway) in the manner we did, all we did was signal weakness to Putin and others, so I'm sure he felt now was the best time to make his move. Never show weakness in the face of tyrants. Hasn't history proven this to be true?

The reality is, America is an empire in decline, and going around like a drunk in a bar challenging everyone to a fight won't change that.  Eventually our bluff will get called, in fact it already is (witness the Saudis thinking about accepting yuan for oil).  No American interest depends on who controls Ukraine or Taiwan, acting like it does will only make the collapse more chaotic and destructive than it needs to be.

I agree that Finland and Sweden contemplating NATO membership is not something Russia wants, but it doesn't change the fact that Ukraine for them is a red line, and not really for anyone else.  So the US/EU going hysterical over this only makes them look insane to the rest of the world.  But I doubt China is regretting their support for Russia, simply because they know if Russia falls, they are next.  And besides:  Russia is not losing the war, it seems clear they will achieve their primary objectives (no one but the US government and media are claiming the Russians intended a lightning victory).  

[JohnOsbourne]

China Solomon Islands security deal: Morrison defends relations with Solomon Islands after 'invasion' claim (9news.com.au)

[kipper]

4 hours ago, JohnOsbourne said:

The reality is, America is an empire in decline, and going around like a drunk in a bar challenging everyone to a fight won't change that.  Eventually our bluff will get called, in fact it already is (witness the Saudis thinking about accepting yuan for oil).  No American interest depends on who controls Ukraine or Taiwan, acting like it does will only make the collapse more chaotic and destructive than it needs to be.

I agree that Finland and Sweden contemplating NATO membership is not something Russia wants, but it doesn't change the fact that Ukraine for them is a red line, and not really for anyone else.  So the US/EU going hysterical over this only makes them look insane to the rest of the world.  But I doubt China is regretting their support for Russia, simply because they know if Russia falls, they are next.  And besides:  Russia is not losing the war, it seems clear they will achieve their primary objectives (no one but the US government and media are claiming the Russians intended a lightning victory).  

You make good points. And the reason the Saudis are turning their back on us right now is two fold:  1) the rush by the USA and EU to suddenly cut out fossil fuels means the Saudis must make new economic partners, and China and India will buy the oil we don't want to, and those nations will pump more pollution in to the atmosphere anyway.  And 2) our current leadership offended the Saudi prince over a matter we didn't need to bother with, and then not seeing the Saudi side in the proxy war in Yemen between SA and Iran.  Saudis are right that Iran is the bigger threat in the region. And Iran backed by Russia and China means we should have been nicer to the Saudis than we have been since the "new boss" came in

Politicians looking for votes making brash statements about having the Ukraine in NATO was really dumb. Putin is what he is, but could not allow the Ukraine to become a NATO member anymore than we would want Canada in a military alliance with China.

[JohnOsbourne]

20 minutes ago, kipper said:

You make good points. And the reason the Saudis are turning their back on us right now is two fold:  1) the rush by the USA and EU to suddenly cut out fossil fuels means the Saudis must make new economic partners, and China and India will buy the oil we don't want to, and those nations will pump more pollution in to the atmosphere anyway.  And 2) our current leadership offended the Saudi prince over a matter we didn't need to bother with, and then not seeing the Saudi side in the proxy war in Yemen between SA and Iran.  Saudis are right that Iran is the bigger threat in the region. And Iran backed by Russia and China means we should have been nicer to the Saudis than we have been since the "new boss" came in

Politicians looking for votes making brash statements about having the Ukraine in NATO was really dumb. Putin is what he is, but could not allow the Ukraine to become a NATO member anymore than we would want Canada in a military alliance with China.

Putin's no sweetheart of course, but America has had no problem partnering with much worse autocrats than him if it served the national interest.  How destroying our economy while driving Russia into the arms of our main competitor is in our interest is something that's very mysterious to me.  

[kipper]

1 minute ago, JohnOsbourne said:

Putin's no sweetheart of course, but America has had no problem partnering with much worse autocrats than him if it served the national interest.  How destroying our economy while driving Russia into the arms of our main competitor is in our interest is something that's very mysterious to me.  

Spot on!

[SteveAJones]

9 hours ago, JohnOsbourne said:

No American interest depends on who controls Ukraine or Taiwan

The world's advanced semiconductors are made in Taiwan. 

[JohnOsbourne]

5 hours ago, SteveAJones said:

The world's advanced semiconductors are made in Taiwan. 

Yes, but does this mean we should be willing to go to war to defend Taiwan?  There are many countries and territories whose economic resources could be classified as vital (including the Ukraine), are we obliged to defend them?  The US does not even recognize Taiwan as an independent state (only a few countries do), for decades we've been ok with the idea that there is one China, and that eventually they'll re-unify formally, it's only been the last year or so where this insane idea has come about that we need to provoke China militarily (like we did with Russia vis-a-vis the Ukraine).  Taiwan is a red-line for China (just like Ukraine is for Russia), and there is no indication that Beijing had military designs on Taiwan absent provocative US rhetoric.  Again, we seem to be creating our own problems here, it's irresponsible (and crazy).  

Ultimately the situation there is similar to what was claimed about Saddam and oil:  the Chinese would be hurting themselves economically if they tried to cut off supplies of Taiwanese semiconductors, so why would they do this?  (I'm sure there are high-ranking CCP officials who already have their fingers in the Taiwanese pie, it's probably akin to Swiss banks for them.)  It is true they might try to use this as leverage to get the US to back off in Asia, but is this really so unreasonable?  Do we still need to pay for the defense of Japan and S Korea (two of the richest countries in the world)?  We have our neck of the woods (e.g. the Monroe Doctrine), they have theirs.  No valid American interest depends on us policing the AIPAC region, esp. given all of the other problems we have at home that should be addressed.  

[JohnOsbourne]

Apart from the historical context of the Ukraine's relation to Russia, there are definite parallels with the situation in Syria, where different factions of the US Deep State (CIA vs Pentagon/DoD) were running competing proxy wars (the Pentagon supported Kurdish rebels, the CIA had their ISIS mercenaries).  This can be seen in the public controversy over US claims (leaks?) about intel-sharing:

US intelligence told to keep quiet over role in Ukraine military triumphs | US foreign policy | The Guardian

[ScarletMacaw]

Apparently, the troll farm pays its troll overtime pay.

1. Being outraged over murders of civilians, bombing civilians hiding in a basement, rape of women and children, leveling entire cities, is not "moral posturing." It's moral outrage. Unless you're a sociopath.

2. There is a general consensus that Russia tried to take Kyiv in order to depose the government and install a puppet. They failed. 

3. China has intended to take back Taiwan for a long time and hasn't because they've been afraid.

4. The only thing that Russia has going for it militarily is their nuclear arsenal, and that has been demonstrated conclusively in the Ukraine war, which has illustrated shocking deficiencies in the Russian military; I think I posted an article about this. 

5. The US found oil and natural gas supplies in the U.S. and became less dependent on Saudi oil. It had little to do with green energy, although the use of wind and solar has increased. 

6. The U.S. does not have to go to war with China over Taiwan; we only have to supply Taiwan with the right weapons for their defense. Taiwan also could do more to beef up their defenses. 

7. The U.S. never had an "empire" like the British or the Ottomans or the Romans, although it's true we have meddled in other countries, such as Iran and also Latin America, when we shouldn't have. We have also fought stupid and illegal wars, such as Vietnam and Iraq. Those mistakes don't equate with being an "empire." It may seem like semantics, but the aforementioned empires didn't just go to war with other countries; they exploited them financially for centuries. 

8. I'm trying to think of who could be described as a worse autocrat that Putin during the last 25 years but no one comes to mind. 

[shnflacwav]

46 minutes ago, ScarletMacaw said:

8. I'm trying to think of who could be described as a worse autocrat that Putin during the last 25 years but no one comes to mind. 

Rocket man Kim Jong-un.

[JohnOsbourne]

46 minutes ago, ScarletMacaw said:

Apparently, the troll farm pays its troll overtime pay.

1. Being outraged over murders of civilians, bombing civilians hiding in a basement, rape of women and children, leveling entire cities, is not "moral posturing." It's moral outrage. Unless you're a sociopath.

2. There is a general consensus that Russia tried to take Kyiv in order to depose the government and install a puppet. They failed. 

3. China has intended to take back Taiwan for a long time and hasn't because they've been afraid.

4. The only thing that Russia has going for it militarily is their nuclear arsenal, and that has been demonstrated conclusively in the Ukraine war, which has illustrated shocking deficiencies in the Russian military; I think I posted an article about this. 

5. The US found oil and natural gas supplies in the U.S. and became less dependent on Saudi oil. It had little to do with green energy, although the use of wind and solar has increased. 

6. The U.S. does not have to go to war with China over Taiwan; we only have to supply Taiwan with the right weapons for their defense. Taiwan also could do more to beef up their defenses. 

7. The U.S. never had an "empire" like the British or the Ottomans or the Romans, although it's true we have meddled in other countries, such as Iran and also Latin America, when we shouldn't have. We have also fought stupid and illegal wars, such as Vietnam and Iraq. Those mistakes don't equate with being an "empire." It may seem like semantics, but the aforementioned empires didn't just go to war with other countries; they exploited them financially for centuries. 

8. I'm trying to think of who could be described as a worse autocrat that Putin during the last 25 years but no one comes to mind. 

Sadly, I am not getting paid for any of this, I simply have a duty to not let stupidity go unchallenged.

1.  You are beyond a major-league hypocrite over all of this, and should not be taken seriously.

2.  By "general consensus" you mean the US government and lap-dog media.

3.  You know this how?  Even if true, so what?  Are you going for regime change in China now?  Why should the US get involved here as well?

4.  The media has admitted that the US government feeds it questionable intel, so claims of Russian military failure by the MSM need to be viewed quite skeptically.  Again, Kiev's actions from start (desperately calling for a no-fly zone, etc.) do not resemble those of someone who's "winning."  At any rate, please explain why Ukraine is worth risking nuclear war over.

5.  Claims of U.S. energy independence are somewhat misleading, we are a still a huge importer of certain (critical) grades of crude, e.g. The myth of US 'energy independence' (yahoo.com)  At any rate, the status of the US dollar as the world reserve currency, as manifested in the petrodollar system, is existential to the American (imperial) system, if that goes, all Hell breaks loose.  It's not simply a question of buying oil in this or that currency.

6.  Yes, because this has worked out so well in Ukraine.  

7.  This is just laughable.  The US has waged aggressive war, destabilized governments, and imposed economic sanctions with impunity pretty much the entire post-war period.  You can justify that if you want, but calling this long, consistent history a series of "mistakes" is delusional.  We are an empire by any reasonable standard.  And one that's in decline.  

8.  The Saudi royal family (pretty much all of the Gulf Kingdoms), Saddam (whom we once supported), the CCP, North Korea, the list goes on and on.  Going back further than 25 years, Putin is hardly as bad as any of the right-wing military dictatorships in Latin America we've supported (sometimes, admittedly, with justification).  

 

[JohnOsbourne]

27 minutes ago, shnflacwav said:

Rocket man Kim Jong-un.

Didn't Castro die fairly recently?  He would qualify as a "worse autocrat than Putin in the last 25 years" or whatever.

[JohnOsbourne]

Arguably another government worse than Putin's is Ukraine's:

Everything you need to know about human rights in Ukraine - Amnesty International Amnesty International

Ukraine: Torture, Disappearances in East | Human Rights Watch (hrw.org)

Human Rights Groups Urge Ukraine To Fix Shortcomings In Proposed Reform Of Security Service (rferl.org)

UN report accuses Ukrainian government of human rights abuses - World Socialist Web Site (wsws.org)

Edited May 8, 2022 by JohnOsbourne

[SteveAJones]

10 hours ago, JohnOsbourne said:

Yes, but does this mean we should be willing to go to war to defend Taiwan?  Do we still need to pay for the defense of Japan and S Korea (two of the richest countries in the world)?  We have our neck of the woods (e.g. the Monroe Doctrine), they have theirs.  No valid American interest depends on us policing the AIPAC region, esp. given all of the other problems we have at home that should be addressed.  

Unfortunately, I think within the next five years we're going to find out (Taiwan). If you're unwilling to defend Japan and South Korea they too would be lost to China in time in my opinion. China is positioning itself as THE world's superpower and they'd like nothing more than to place the whole Pacific region under their control.   

[JohnOsbourne]

25 minutes ago, SteveAJones said:

Unfortunately, I think within the next five years we're going to find out (Taiwan). If you're unwilling to defend Japan and South Korea they too would be lost to China in time in my opinion. China is positioning itself as THE world's superpower and they'd like nothing more than to place the whole Pacific region under their control.   

They definitely want to be the regional superpower in the Pacific, I agree.  But even here, they could now be doing things like regime change or color revolutions in places like Vietnam or the Philippines, but they're not (as far as I can tell).  They bully these countries over various stupid issues, but they don't seem interested in political destabilization as such.  So I am skeptical about how grand their designs are.  Ultimately I think they want to go back to the old, pre-Trump/pre-covid order where Western finance exploited cheap Chinese labor (with the CCP getting a big cut).  But that ship has long since sailed, there is no going back.

At the end of the day, America needs to get our own house in order.  We are defended by two vast oceans, militarily insignificant neighbors, and a well-armed populace (thanks to the 2nd Amendment).  With our natural and human resources and traditions of political and economic freedom, we can have peace and prosperity at home without a far-flung military presence around the globe. 

[SteveAJones]

1 hour ago, JohnOsbourne said:

They definitely want to be the regional superpower in the Pacific, I agree.  But even here, they could now be doing things like regime change or color revolutions in places like Vietnam or the Philippines, but they're not (as far as I can tell).  They bully these countries over various stupid issues, but they don't seem interested in political destabilization as such.  So I am skeptical about how grand their designs are.  Ultimately I think they want to go back to the old, pre-Trump/pre-covid order where Western finance exploited cheap Chinese labor (with the CCP getting a big cut).  But that ship has long since sailed, there is no going back. 

It's a long, methodical process. The first and most important step is to destabilize and diminish the United States, which has been well under way for several years. They own the current political administration which is why for all the hand-wringing and cauterwauling about Ukraine and Russia Russia Russia we never hear a word in opposition to the Communist Chinese.