euro Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Getting closed to short-term bottom-too much scare-mongering out there. Please dont sell if you dont have to- hate to see the scare-mongering vultures capitalize on others losses. Great value out there if you pick up the right investments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eternal light Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Speaking for the US.... the "Economy" was originally from agriculture.....then the agricultural economy was replaced with things due to the Industrial Revolution. Somewhere along the way, we replaced the economy with a "Financial" Economy..... And there lies the rub..... A better economy is things, and --not-- finances.... Look at China.... an economy based on things..... They had more cash on hand than most.... I like an economy based on something that I can easily see... like things.... Financial "Black Boxes" and unregualted Credit Default Swaps - -- NO THANKS !! It is true that emphasis has shifted from goods to services. The value of services is relative to their actual importance minus the fluff. Demand and availability are factors that influence value. If a service is in great demand and it is scarce, then it has a higher value, the same as goods that are in great demand and scarce. For instance, if someone wanted to purchase tickets to see Led Zeppelin at the O2, the tickets and the service that enabled the buyer to buy the tickets in a situation of high demand resulted in a high value for both the service and goods. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down at 8,326.14 this morning, having lost 253.05 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2bitnogoodjive Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 It's been a great ride down from the peak. But there's plenty more to go. Still, it can't get any easier than it's been. I'm guessing this is going to parallel the Japanese market of the '90's. The economic situation is nearly identical -- an oil price spiral, a housing bubble, lending/banking excesses everywhere, and then the housing collapse and banking meltdown. The Nikkei in 1990 lost about 41% in the initial plunge, top to bottom, same as here. It took about a year, same as here. After hitting bottom, it bounced around for several months. Then in early '91, there was a 2-month rally that retraced about 25% of the loss. Then there was a more gradual year-and-a-half long slide into the fall of '92 that took another 37% off, top to bottom. The overall drop, top to bottom, was about 66% and it took about 2 3/4 years. Projecting that into our situation, we can xpect some sideways action here for several months, a rally probably around year end into early next year, taking the DJIA back up to ~10,000, and then a year-and-a-half long drop into mid-2010 taking the DJIA to about 6300. Many people used to compare the dotcom collapse to the Nikkei collapse, and it looks similar on the chart. But in terms of the fundamentals, the dotcom collapse was just a stock market crash, whereas the current crash involves real estate, stocks, and credit/banking meltdowns, just like in Japan. Japan tried to prop its banking system up by buying bad bank assets, reducing interest rates to zero, and spending huge amounts of government money to where its public debt is now 1 1/2 times GDP. To no avail. Sound familiar? The problem was, as they flooded the system with liquidity, they couldn't get the banks to lend or borrowers to borrow. Banks instead bought Treasury securities with all that liquidity they received from the government. Regarding real state, much of it lost 95% top to bottom, although Japanese real estate reached stratospheric prices. But it tells you how far US real estate could fall. Another thing to keep in mind, when Japan went bust, the rest of the world economy was pretty sound, giving Japan a cushion of sorts. Today, the world economy/financial system is melting down. I expect this parallel to continue. The government may succeed in reliquefying our banking system, but I doubt they will persuade banks to lend or borrowers to borrow. Banks will restrict lending and try to conserve capital because of counterparty risk that is not going away very soon, because of their impaired balance sheets, and because of very limited opportunities to lend. Borrowers simply will not borrow, because of their own indebtedness and the perception that real estate is a bad investment. Bottom line -- I'm sure the government will try to derail us from this glide path, but how can they succeed. It's pretty clear they're grasping at straws. They let this thing cascade out of control, being way behind the curve all the way. They don't inspire much confidence certainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I have got a horsey Posted October 12, 2008 Author Share Posted October 12, 2008 I expect this parallel to continue. The government may succeed in reliquefying our banking system, but I doubt they will persuade banks to lend or borrowers to borrow. Banks will restrict lending and try to conserve capital because of counterparty risk that is not going away very soon, because of their impaired balance sheets, and because of very limited opportunities to lend. Borrowers simply will not borrow, because of their own indebtedness and the perception that real estate is a bad investment. That's exactly right. Although really the government couldn't not get involved, the deal can only insure the solvency of banks, but as you said, not actually fire up the lending spree again. The institutions are too shocked and there will be lending caution for a few years to come. It's always interesting when you examine top level real estate prices to see how overblown values have become. New York, for example, Upper East-Side town house bought for $12million 6 years ago, on the market for $35 million recently, and no renovation or remodelling work has gone on, that's just an indication of the jump in price over 6 years. The penthouse apartment at the Pierre Hotel, bought in 1999 for $21 million, on the market last year for $70 million. That's a price increase of 335% over 8 years. Even in London, freehold townhouse in Belgravia in 2000 cost £3 million, now for sale again at £10.5 million, price increase of 250% over 8 years. But my house, worth $180,000 in 2000, now worth $360,000. 100% increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eternal light Posted October 13, 2008 Share Posted October 13, 2008 The Dow closed on the upside in today's trading. By TIM PARADIS, AP Business Writer 5 minutes ago NEW YORK - Wall Street snapped back from last week's devastating losses after major governments announced further steps to support the global banking system, including plans by the U.S. Treasury to buy stocks of some banks. All the major indexes rose about 7 percent, and the Dow Jones industrials rose as much as 600 points. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081013/ap_on_..._re/wall_street Dow Jones Industrial Average 9,387.61 +936.42 +11.08% http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_q...ol=%24US%3Aindu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eternal light Posted October 14, 2008 Share Posted October 14, 2008 The market is fluctuating on the downside so far in today's trading. Dow Jones Industrial Average 9,333.13 -54.48 -0.58% http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_q...ol=%24US%3Aindu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eternal light Posted October 15, 2008 Share Posted October 15, 2008 It looks like the recovery is going to be a little slow. Dow Jones Industrial Average 8,955.60 -355.39 -3.82% http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_q...ol=%24US%3Aindu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eternal light Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 The Dow went down 800 points total, Tuesday and today. Here are the numbers at the close of today's trading that show the Dow closed down at 8,577.91. The market is on a downturn. I am patiently looking for the market to gradually edge back up into the 10,000+ zone. It's better to resist the urge to panic. Panic will not correct the market. Dow Jones Industrial Average 8,577.91 -733.08 -7.87% http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_q...ol=%24US%3Aindu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kirchzep27 Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 maybe its -acorn's fault.... ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Rover Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 The government may succeed in reliquefying our banking system, but I doubt they will persuade banks to lend or borrowers to borrow. Banks will restrict lending and try to conserve capital because of counterparty risk that is not going away very soon, because of their impaired balance sheets, and because of very limited opportunities to lend. Borrowers simply will not borrow, because of their own indebtedness and the perception that real estate is a bad investment. Bottom line -- I'm sure the government will try to derail us from this glide path, but how can they succeed. It's pretty clear they're grasping at straws. They let this thing cascade out of control, being way behind the curve all the way. They don't inspire much confidence certainly. Yes!!!! The govt. wants to mitiagte the losses of Banks.... of Banks Crashing and Burning..... But.... the people..... THEY can Crash and Burn..... Becuase the Govt exists first and foremost.... to prop up banks.... that's responsiblity # 1 if you're a bank the Govt. wants to keep around. The unregualted crap that many banks have gotten themslever deeply into is just why bank don't want to lend to other banks.... But somehow the Govt now knows better than those silly bankers !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanna be drummer Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 Governments rarely do anything right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eternal light Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 Dow Jones Industrial Average 8,232.56 -345.35 -4.03% http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_q...ol=%24US%3Aindu Ewwww, it's gonna be a bit more of a wait for that recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I have got a horsey Posted October 16, 2008 Author Share Posted October 16, 2008 Ewwww, it's gonna be a bit more of a wait for that recovery. It's plummeting again... If it's not a depression we're looking at, it's certainly a recession. Market volatility is the thing. Some of the greatest single-day gains on the stock market were made during the Great Depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Rover Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 Thursday October 16 http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081016/wall_street.html Because of investors' great anxiety about the economy, Wall Street is expected to remain extremely volatile, as it has been over the past month since the credit markets began tightening and stocks plunged. The gyrations this week have been particularly intense, with the Dow industrials soaring 936 points Monday and falling 733 Wednesday following a weak report on retail sales and a disheartening assessment of the economy from the Federal Reserve. Investors also were troubled by Citigroup Inc.'s third-quarter results, which, while better than the Street expected, were still a reminder of the banking problems that have contributed heavily to the faltering economy. The bank posted its fourth straight quarterly loss due to credit-related troubles and cut another 11,000 jobs. The company said it lost $2.8 billion, in the third quarter compared with a profit of $2.2 billion a year earlier. Citigroup fell $1.16, or 7.2 percent, to $15.07. Merrill Lynch & Co., which recently agreed to be acquired by Citigroup Inc. rival Bank of America Corp., early Thursday posted a net loss of $5.1 billion. The loss was wider than analyst forecasts. Merrill fell 50 cents, or 2.7 percent, to $17.74. ----------------- Yes.... let's keep propping up those wise and prosperous gargantuan banks and their savvy takeover investments..... They are soooo worthy of our Trust !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cryingbluerain Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 An Obama 'Rescue' Plan That Doesn't http://www.investors.com/editorial/editori...308790933239252 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katydidgood Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 My thoughts are its only going to get alot worse before it gets any better what so ever. My sentiments exactly GETTIN READY FOR THE SHIT TO HIT THE FAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eternal light Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 My sentiments exactly GETTIN READY FOR THE SHIT TO HIT THE FAN It closed up fortunately at 8,979.26, but the market still needs to inch its way up past 10,000. Dow Jones Industrial Average 8,979.26 +401.35 +4.68% http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_q...ol=%24US%3Aindu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwizard03 Posted October 18, 2008 Share Posted October 18, 2008 When a Country buy's every thing from overseas China,Tiawan,Japan,Mexico etc How long do You think They can maintain a positive economy.We have gave this Country to Foriengers bit by bit for Years . I worked for a Company Tyco International for 5 years they manufactured Valves .A piston that they used in a 4" Pressure Saftey Valve cost $800 to manufacture here and they Sold it for $1200. Now they manufacture the same piston in China for $50 and that includes shipping it still sells for $1200. This was bound to happen .We have to get back to manufacturing over here and come to a happy medium on wages and cost of manufacturing less greed from the large companies and maybe a little less greed from some of us worker bees to. The fact that the price of a decent House note is now what You would have paid in the late 60's early 70's for a brand new car not the note the whole Car is kind of mind boggeling. I will get off the rant it is not which party runs the Country that put us in this shape both party's work the same way.We as voters need to raise our voices together and say enough is enough we are selling this Country one building at a time to Foriegn Intrest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2bitnogoodjive Posted October 18, 2008 Share Posted October 18, 2008 Crisis may make 1929 look like a 'walk in the park' http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...-park'.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eternal light Posted October 18, 2008 Share Posted October 18, 2008 Crisis may make 1929 look like a 'walk in the park' http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...-park'.html "Liquidity doesn't do anything in this situation," says Anna Schwartz, the doyenne of US monetarism and life-time student (with Milton Friedman) of the Great Depression. "It cannot deal with the underlying fear that lots of firms are going bankrupt. The banks and the hedge funds have not fully acknowledged who is in trouble. That is the critical issue," she adds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kirchzep27 Posted October 19, 2008 Share Posted October 19, 2008 Oil is getting cheaper. thank you master blaster, or masters/ blasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Rover Posted October 21, 2008 Share Posted October 21, 2008 So long, suckers. Millionaire hedge fund boss thanks 'idiot' traders and retires at 37 http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oc...nking-useconomy The boss of a successful US hedge fund has quit the industry with an extraordinary farewell letter dismissing his rivals as over-privileged "idiots" and thanking "stupid" traders for making him rich. Andrew Lahde's $80m Los Angeles-based firm Lahde Capital Management in Los Angeles made a huge return last year by betting against subprime mortgages. Yesterday the 37-year-old told his clients that he had hated the business and had only been in it for the money. And after declaring he would no longer manage money for other people, because he had enough of his own, Lahde said that instead he intended to repair his stress-damaged health; he made it clear he would not miss the financial world. "The low-hanging fruit, ie idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking," he wrote. "These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government," he said. "All of this behaviour supporting the aristocracy only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America." Lahde became one of the biggest names in the investment industry when one of his funds produced a return of 866% last year, largely by forecasting the US home loans industry would collapse. In his farewell letter, which concluded with an appeal for the legalisation of marijuana, Lahde said he was happy with his rewards and did not envy those who had made even more money. "I will let others try to amass nine, 10 or 11 figure net worths. Meanwhile, their lives suck," he wrote, citing a life of back-to-back business appointments relieved only by a two-week annual holiday in which financiers are still "glued to their Blackberries". Lahde's retirement came amid an implosion among the hedge fund industry - some 350 of the funds have liquidated this year, according to Hedge Fund Research. His final words of advice? "Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eternal light Posted October 21, 2008 Share Posted October 21, 2008 In this morning's trading we're seeing a reversal of yesterday's gains. 9,033.66 -231.77 -2.50% http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_q...ol=%24US%3Aindu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eternal light Posted October 22, 2008 Share Posted October 22, 2008 It wasn't pretty today. Dow 8,519.21 -514.45 -5.69% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tejanablonde Posted October 23, 2008 Share Posted October 23, 2008 So long, suckers. Millionaire hedge fund boss thanks 'idiot' traders and retires at 37 http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oc...nking-useconomy The boss of a successful US hedge fund has quit the industry with an extraordinary farewell letter dismissing his rivals as over-privileged "idiots" and thanking "stupid" traders for making him rich. Andrew Lahde's $80m Los Angeles-based firm Lahde Capital Management in Los Angeles made a huge return last year by betting against subprime mortgages. Yesterday the 37-year-old told his clients that he had hated the business and had only been in it for the money. And after declaring he would no longer manage money for other people, because he had enough of his own, Lahde said that instead he intended to repair his stress-damaged health; he made it clear he would not miss the financial world. "The low-hanging fruit, ie idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking," he wrote. "These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government," he said. "All of this behaviour supporting the aristocracy only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America." Lahde became one of the biggest names in the investment industry when one of his funds produced a return of 866% last year, largely by forecasting the US home loans industry would collapse. In his farewell letter, which concluded with an appeal for the legalisation of marijuana, Lahde said he was happy with his rewards and did not envy those who had made even more money. "I will let others try to amass nine, 10 or 11 figure net worths. Meanwhile, their lives suck," he wrote, citing a life of back-to-back business appointments relieved only by a two-week annual holiday in which financiers are still "glued to their Blackberries". Lahde's retirement came amid an implosion among the hedge fund industry - some 350 of the funds have liquidated this year, according to Hedge Fund Research. His final words of advice? "Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life." I second Lahde's statement. He is a wise man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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