The Next President of the USA will be?

[Pb Derigable]

^ there's a dose of reality for ya, Pb.

Put it in your pipe and smoke it, Pipeboy.

[Pb, I hope you appreciate that I kept this post short and very simple.

...so as not to overburden that pea-sized thing serving as your brain.]

So im stupid because i have a small brain. Whats your excuse.

[Absolutentonic]

LATEST SUPERDELEGATE COUNT:

Hillary Clinton 279

Nobama 249

hmmm. Lots of spin going on here.

[allthekingshorses]

LATEST SUPERDELEGATE COUNT:

Hillary Clinton 279

Nobama 249

hmmm. Lots of spin going on here.

Senator Obama is 279 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination.

Hillary needs 419.

[Hermit]

LATEST SUPERDELEGATE COUNT:

Hillary Clinton 279

Nobama 249

hmmm. Lots of spin going on here.

"Hmmm".. indeed.

Hmmm..

MSNBC shows it as:

Clinton: 267

Obama: 248

RCP shows it as:

Clinton: 266

Obama: 249

CNN shows it as:

Clinton: 265

Obama: 243

You don't identify your source, and your numbers give Hillary a range

of 12 to 14 more supers than the of three sources I've shown give her.

Hmmm...

Take a look at these numbers...

Obama has more pledged delegates [1489-1333]

Obama has more total delegates [1738-1599]

Obama has won more primaries [26-16]

Obama has more popular votes [14,418,784; 49.2% - 13,917,318; 47.5%]*

Obama needs fewer delegates to win the nomination [282-426]

*source: RCP.com

Spin that, bub.

Edited May 2, 2008 by Hermit

[Absolutentonic]

"Hmmm".. indeed.

Hmmm..

MSNBC shows it as:

Clinton: 267

Obama: 248

RCP shows it as:

Clinton: 266

Obama: 249

CNN shows it as:

Clinton: 265

Obama: 243

You don't identify your source, and your numbers give Hillary a range

of 12 to 14 more supers than the of three sources I've shown give her.

Hmmm...

Take a look at these numbers...

Obama has more pledged delegates [1489-1333]

Obama has more total delegates [1738-1599]

Obama has won more primaries [26-16]

Obama has more popular votes [14,418,784; 49.2% - 13,917,318; 47.5%]

*source: RCP.com*

Spin that, bub.

My source was Fox news. Bill O'Reilly doesnt think she is out of it. Neither does CNN's senior analyst Snyder. How can you say the damn race is over at this point? Do you really think Obama is going to reach the magic number of delegates? And do you think that Rev Wright hasnt hurt him badly? Get real.

[wanna be drummer]

My source was Fox news. Bill O'Reilly doesnt think she is out of it. Neither does CNN's senior analyst Snyder. How can you say the damn race is over at this point? Do you really think Obama is going to reach the magic number of delegates? And do you think that Rev Wright hasnt hurt him badly? Get real.

Of course he's hurt him, but Wright cannot be Bills savior. He's come too late. Obama already has the numbers, and the mojority of the voters will still vote for him, because Wright isn't running for candidacy, Obama is.

If you think Wright will take away the nomination for Obama, then you need to sit down and actually read the stats and what they mean.

Get real

Edited May 2, 2008 by wanna be drummer

[Absolutentonic]

Of course he's hurt him, but Wright cannot be Bills savior. He's come too late. Obama already has the numbers, and the mojority of the voters will still vote for him, because Wright isn't running for candidacy, Obama is.

If you think Wright will take away the nomination for Obama, then you need to sit down and actually read the stats and what they mean.

Get real

My understanding is the superdelegates may decide it and if thats the case they will have the moral highground to chose Hillary, if they think she has a better chance of beating McCain. The states that remain will come into play and I still think that the issues of Florida and Michigan we have not heard the last of.

[Hermit]

My source was Fox news. Bill O'Reilly doesnt think she is out of it. Neither does CNN's senior analyst Snyder. How can you say the damn race is over at this point? Do you really think Obama is going to reach the magic number of delegates? And do you think that Rev Wright hasnt hurt him badly? Get real.

We've been through this a zillion times already,..

but hey, what the heck.. why not one more time, right?

At the end of the primary process Obama is going to lead Hillary in the pledged delegate count (the KEY factor in determining a nominee); in the popular votes count; and will have won more states than Hillary. That's not merely my opinion, it's what the mathematics of the primaries indicates is likely, almost to a certainty, to happen. It is mathematically virtually impossible for Hillary to overtake Obama in any of those categories.

As far as the superdelegates go,.. since neither Obama or Clinton is likely going to get the required number of pledged delegates to secure the nomination, the superdelegates will be the ones deciding the nominee. They can do whatever they want so we don't really know what they'll do; we have to wait and see. But we can reasonably presume that they will not outright disregard the will (as indicated by the totals from the state primaries) of the people; to do so would cause a rift in the party so deep as to doom the party in the general election. In trying to get a sense for what the supers will do, we can see that those who have made their decisions known have been clearly and consistently trending toward Obama.. a trend that has been accelerating.. despite the Rev Wright issue. One might then reasonably infer, you might agree, that the supers.. who will ultimately decide the nominee.. have NOT been holding the Rev Wright issue against Obama.

ALL the indicators in this race are pointing to Obama being the party nominee.

See?

Its true that the race is not "over", per se,..

..but it certainly does appear to be "all but over".

If you care to offer a counter-argument to the above rationale, I welcome hearing it.

Btw,.. who are you supporting? Clinton, Obama, or.. More Of The Same McCain?

Btw II.. fwiw, Bill O'Reilly's opinion means absolutely nothing to me. The guy is a blowhard, a partisan hack, and a chronic liar. Afaic, he has zero credibility. Zip, zilch, nada, none. Magic 8 Balls give more thoughtful, worthwhile predictions than Papa Felafel.

[edited for typos]

Edited May 2, 2008 by Hermit

[Absolutentonic]

We've been through this a zillion times already,..

but hey, what the heck.. why not one more time, right?

At the end of the primary process Obama is going to lead Hillary in the pledged delegate count (the KEY factor in determining a nominee); in the popular votes count; and will have won more states than Hillary. That's not merely my opinion, it's what the mathematics of the primaries indicates is likely, almost to a certainty, to happen. It is mathematically virtually impossible for Hillary to overtake Obama in any of those categories.

As far as the superdelegates go,.. since neither Obama or Clinton is likely going to get the required number of pledged delegates to secure the nomination, the superdelegates will be the ones deciding the nominee. They can do whatever they want so we don't really know what they'll do; we have to wait and see. But we can reasonably presume that they will not outright disregard the will (as indicated by the totals from the state primaries) of the people; to do so would cause a rift in the party so deep as to doom the party in the general election. In trying to get a sense for what the supers will do, we can see that those who have made their decisions known have been clearly and consistently trending toward Obama.. a trend that has been accelerating.. despite the Rev Wright issue. One might then reasonably infer, you might agree, that the supers.. who will ultimately decide the nominee.. have NOT been holding the Rev Wright issue against Obama.

ALL the indicators in this race are pointing to Obama being the party nominee.

See?

Its true that the race is not "over", per se,..

..but it certainly does appear to be "all but over".

If you care to offer a counter-argument to the above rationale, I welcome hearing it.

Btw,.. who are you supporting? Clinton, Obama, or.. More Of The Same McCain?

Btw II.. fwiw, Bill O'Reilly's opinion means absolutely nothing to me. The guy is a blowhard, a partisan hack, and a chronic liar. Afaic, he has zero credibility. Zip, zilch, nada, none. Magic 8 Balls give more thoughtful, worthwhile predictions than Papa Felafel.

[edited for typos]

Well the one good argument that could win it for Hillary is the popular vote. Assuminng she does well in the remaining primaries, she can argue that she has indeed won the popular vote, especially if Florida would have put her over the top. Who do you think I want. Hillary.

[Hermit]

Well the one good argument that could win it for Hillary is the popular vote. Assuminng she does well in the remaining primaries, she can argue that she has indeed won the popular vote, especially if Florida would have put her over the top. Who do you think I want. Hillary.

I hear where you're coming from, friend. But even if Hillary wins the popular vote count.. a mathematical near impossibility.. that would not be enough for the supers to outright ignore the fact that Obama will have made it through the primary process having accumulated more pledged delegates than Hillary. If the supers ignore the pledged delegate total (the benchmark for choosing a nominee) there will be a revolt in the democratic party,.. and the result will be that John McCain can go ahead and start assembling his cabinet.

In order for the supers to go against the pledged delegate count a case would have to be made that Obama is entirely unelectable (ie, there is absolutely no way he can beat McCain) in the general election, and that argument simply cannot be made at this point, and should not even be suggested.

I would think it should go without saying, but apparently it does need to be said: as democrats we should be touting the fact that BOTH our candidates are electable. Democrats should not be creating doubts about the electability of other democrats, for crying out loud. And certainly not a candidate with as much promise as Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are BOTH electable; either of them can beat John McCain. About that, democrats should be in complete agreement. Its most unfortunate that in her quest to win the party nomination Hillary Clinton would, as she's been doing, cast any doubt whatsoever on the electability of Barack Obama. In doing so she puts her personal ambitions above the best interests of the party (and, by extension, the country). That's why so many democrats are angry at her right now. But I digress..

Regarding MI and FL.. they will not be outright excluded, but the results will not be allowed to go forward as they now stand. MI and FL broke the party rules; the party has the right to completely nullify/void the results from those states; but the party wont do that; thats too harsh; it would alienate FL and MI voters. The Obama and Clinton campaigns will have to come up with a compromise. Unfortunately for Hillary, any compromise will still leave her trailing Obama in both pledged delegates (and states won, and quite likely in popular votes). Hillary needs the results in MI and FL as they currently stand, or she loses. And she's not going to get the results as they currently stand. See?

I appreciate that you support Hillary. I prefer Obama, but just because I'm pro-Obama, that doesn't mean I'm anti-Hillary; I'm not. I think she'd be a fine POTUS. But it looks like she's not gonna get the nomination and it looks more and more like Obama is going to be the democratic nominee for POTUS. I'm not asking you to abandon Hillary's campaign wagon nor am I asking you to give up hope that she can somehow win. I only ask that you recognize that this race is not just about Hillary vs Barack. It's much, much bigger than that. It's about changing the course of our country. John McCain will not change course; he will bring us more of the same Bush policies. Hillary and Barack would both bring change, and they both would nominate Supreme Court justices that are more in line with your values and principles than John McCain would, I guarantee it! [Given that you support Hillary, I can reasonably infer, I think, what your general values and principles are; they're values and principles that, you might recognize, are shared by Barack Obama and many other democrats as well,.. but not by John McCain and other republicans]. I only ask of you, Absolute, that you not let your pro-Hillary enthusiasm lead you down the road of demonizing Barack Obama. Demonizing Obama.. or suggesting that he is "unelectable" helps the republicans and hurts your own cause.. not the Hillary cause, but the bigger, more important cause. Whichever democrat gets the party nomination, we need to rally behind that candidate. If Hillary wins, I'll support her with all the gusto I can muster. Will you do the same for Obama if he wins the nomination?

Edited May 2, 2008 by Hermit

[Absolutentonic]

I hear where you're coming from, friend. But even if Hillary wins the popular vote count.. a mathematical near impossibility.. that would not be enough for the supers to outright ignore the fact that Obama will have made it through the primary process having accumulated more pledged delegates than Hillary. If the supers ignore the pledged delegate total (the benchmark for choosing a nominee) there will be a revolt in the democratic party,.. and the result will be that John McCain can go ahead and start assembling his cabinet.

In order for the supers to go against the pledged delegate count a case would have to be made that Obama is entirely unelectable (ie, there is absolutely no way he can beat McCain) in the general election, and that argument simply cannot be made at this point, and should not even be suggested.

I would think it should go without saying, but apparently it does need to be said: as democrats we should be touting the fact that BOTH our candidates are electable. Democrats should not be creating doubts about the electability of other democrats, for crying out loud. And certainly not a candidate with as much promise as Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are BOTH electable; either of them can beat John McCain. About that, democrats should be in complete agreement. Its most unfortunate that in her quest to win the party nomination Hillary Clinton would, as she's been doing, cast any doubt whatsoever on the electability of Barack Obama. In doing so she puts her personal ambitions above the best interests of the party (and, by extension, the country). That's why so many democrats are angry at her right now. But I digress..

Regarding MI and FL.. they will not be outright excluded, but the results will not be allowed to go forward as they now stand. MI and FL broke the party rules; the party has the right to completely nullify/void the results from those states; but the party wont do that; thats too harsh; it would alienate FL and MI voters. The Obama and Clinton campaigns will have to come up with a compromise. Unfortunately for Hillary, any compromise will still leave her trailing Obama in both pledged delegates (and states won, and quite likely in popular votes). Hillary needs the results in MI and FL as they currently stand, or she loses. And she's not going to get the results as they currently stand. See?

I appreciate that you support Hillary. I prefer Obama, but just because I'm pro-Obama, that doesn't mean I'm anti-Hillary; I'm not. I think she'd be a fine POTUS. But it looks like she's not gonna get the nomination and it looks more and more like Obama is going to be the democratic nominee for POTUS. I'm not asking you to abandon Hillary's campaign wagon nor am I asking you to give up hope that she can somehow win. I only ask that you recognize that this race is not just about Hillary vs Barack. It's much, much bigger than that. It's about changing the course of our country. John McCain will not change course; he will bring us more of the same Bush policies. Hillary and Barack would both bring change, and they both would nominate Supreme Court justices that are more in line with your values and principles than John McCain would, I guarantee it! [Given that you support Hillary, I can reasonably infer, I think, what your general values and principles are; they're values and principles that, you might recognize, are shared by Barack Obama and many other democrats as well,.. but not by John McCain and other republicans]. I only ask of you, Absolute, that you not let your pro-Hillary enthusiasm lead you down the road of demonizing Barack Obama. Demonizing Obama.. or suggesting that he is "unelectable" helps the republicans and hurts your own cause.. not the Hillary cause, but the bigger, more important cause. Whichever democrat gets the party nomination, we need to rally behind that candidate. If Hillary wins, I'll support her with all the gusto I can muster. Will you do the same for Obama if he wins the nomination?

I just went to the politics section of CNN. They say Obama has dropped even more in the most recent polls. They say that is aprroal rating has gone way down due to the Wright thing. also, they are saying the latest polls show that Hillary would beat McCain by 5 points and Obama would win now by only 4. Something else the supers will consider. I thought Kerry would beat Bush, and I thought Gore would have also. Actually we all know he did. Hillary can still win the popular vote even though she will trail in raw delegates. But she still has the lead with the supers. Surely that isnt small potatoes. To say it will be a forgone conclusion more or less that McCain will lose, we would be fooling ourselves. Those red states will be very tough to turn blue. Hillary can do one thing Obama cant do. Get the vote of Republican white women that dont want an old man running the country. They represent much larger numbers than the black vote will represent which of course favors Obama. Go look at CNN and see for yourself. Right from the lips of Bill Schneider the head political analyst for them who I have much respect for as he never takes sides like many. This is still a three horse race. Tomorrows 20 horse race is easier to pick than this one in my opinion. (just hope the rain stops)

[Hermit]

Absolute.. I'm not asking you to give up your support for Hillary. What I'm asking is..

..IF Obama gets the nomination, would you support him in the general election?

[Absolutentonic]

Absolute.. I'm not asking you to give up your support for Hillary. What I'm asking is..

..IF Obama gets the nomination, would you support him in the general election?

As the old saying goes, "Ill cross that bridge when I come to it". I certainly wont vote for Mc Insane. At worst Id sit this one out. Im so pissed at the local government-the Republicans though. And they have much more effect on my day to day life than the president will. Except for maybe gas prices-which went up 4 cents two days ago, and 2 cents today, making it $3.71 pr gallon at the cheapest place in town!! $4 pretty soon I fear.

[Uncle Bill]

It looks like a lot of people aren't buying nobama's story. Including half the democrats and independents polled saying he is somewhat/ very likely to agree with wright views.

"A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that just 30% of the nation’s Likely Voters believe Barack Obama denounced his former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright, because he was outraged. Most—58%--say he denounced the Pastor for political convenience. The survey was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday night. Obama made his statements about Wright on Tuesday."

Fifty-six percent (56%) say it’s at least somewhat likely that Obama “shares some of Pastor Wright’s controversial views about the United States.”

Just 7% of the nation’s voters agree with Wright’s views of the United States. African-American voters, by a 64% to 12% margin, disagree with Wright. Eighty-one percent (81%) of all voters are following the story somewhat or very closely.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republicans believe it’s somewhat or very likely that Obama shares some of Wright’s views. That assessment is shared by 48% of Democrats and 49% of those not affiliated with either major party.

source

[Nathan]

Stephen Colbert is sick of people making fun of John McCain's age... so he finds something else to make fun of:

http://www.comedycentral.com/colbertreport...?videoId=167376

(Sorry... I had to... )

[zosodude13]

My understanding is the superdelegates may decide it and if thats the case they will have the moral highground to chose Hillary, if they think she has a better chance of beating McCain. The states that remain will come into play and I still think that the issues of Florida and Michigan we have not heard the last of.

the dominos will fall if the supers choose Hill...

1. all the youth and new voters who came out for obama will be left in the cold, and being as radical and stubborn as us youth are () we will go down with the ship. obama's youth votes will not move their support to Hill. the dems will lose the youth vote, and the one demographic that could swing it for the dems will not be there.

2. all you youth will also see an election system with the cadidate with the majority of delegate and the majority of the popular vote not get he nomination. do you think they would ever trust the party again when the PEOPLE'S popular candidate is not the nominee? even if the dems think obama could lose to mccain (even though he wouldnt) they need to fortify the party with the new youth faction that has followed obama since the beginning and could be a whole new generation of future dems. (I will say it again... hill gets the nod... DNC 2008 becomes DNC 1968

3. the GOP hates hillary. period. the GOP may not like mccain, but they'll follow him to hell and back before they let Hill into office. even if the numbers say obama is losing support from the moderates and independants, his numbers will always be higher then hillary's

sure obama is going through the toughest times of his campaign, and someone in school told me he's "neck deep in shit". my response to him, "he may be. but hillary is 8 miles deep in shit."

[Audacity]

It's time for a 3rd party candidate to start screaming!!!

[Absolutentonic]

the dominos will fall if the supers choose Hill...

1. all the youth and new voters who came out for obama will be left in the cold, and being as radical and stubborn as us youth are () we will go down with the ship. obama's youth votes will not move their support to Hill. the dems will lose the youth vote, and the one demographic that could swing it for the dems will not be there.

2. all you youth will also see an election system with the cadidate with the majority of delegate and the majority of the popular vote not get he nomination. do you think they would ever trust the party again when the PEOPLE'S popular candidate is not the nominee? even if the dems think obama could lose to mccain (even though he wouldnt) they need to fortify the party with the new youth faction that has followed obama since the beginning and could be a whole new generation of future dems. (I will say it again... hill gets the nod... DNC 2008 becomes DNC 1968

3. the GOP hates hillary. period. the GOP may not like mccain, but they'll follow him to hell and back before they let Hill into office. even if the numbers say obama is losing support from the moderates and independants, his numbers will always be higher then hillary's

sure obama is going through the toughest times of his campaign, and someone in school told me he's "neck deep in shit". my response to him, "he may be. but hillary is 8 miles deep in shit."

The youth vote doesnt mean shit dude. They come to the polls when they feel like it. They have short memories, and in 2112 they wont even remember this election or what planet they are on . The older women, will come in masses. The fucking math for your boy Omama sucks right now. Wake up and smell the coffee. How many elections have you voted in? Older voters make it to the polls no matter what. Young voters make it if they cant get a dime bag or have nothing better to do that day. Are you kidding me? If its cold outside, they will say, ah fuck it, my vote wont matter anyway. Been there, Know it as fact jack. Obama is done. Kiss his ass goodnight. He has no business running this country.

[Audacity]

Edited May 3, 2008 by Audacity

[bigstickbonzo]

He has no business running this country.

The people who have been running this country ought to be tarred and feathered, then burned at the stake for what they've done. You can be one of the cinder logs, I mean followers.

[Absolutentonic]

The people who have been running this country ought to be tarred and feathered, then burned at the stake for what they've done. You can be one of the cinder logs, I mean followers.

You are another blind dumb ass who knows everything arent you. Mr bigprickbonehead.

[zosodude13]

The youth vote doesnt mean shit dude. They come to the polls when they feel like it. They have short memories, and in 2112 they wont even remember this election or what planet they are on . The older women, will come in masses. The fucking math for your boy Omama sucks right now. Wake up and smell the coffee. How many elections have you voted in? Older voters make it to the polls no matter what. Young voters make it if they cant get a dime bag or have nothing better to do that day. Are you kidding me? If its cold outside, they will say, ah fuck it, my vote wont matter anyway. Been there, Know it as fact jack. Obama is done. Kiss his ass goodnight. He has no business running this country.

the point im making is since youth usually dont vote, and obama has been getting them to vote, it does mean shit, DUDE!!!

if you read my post, I said youth were a new faction of support and that could shift the status quo... its simple, youth wont vote for hill... every GOP will vote mccain just because they hate her... its that simple

I live in her state, she has done shit to fix our economy in upstate NY... I dont know if you are farmiliar with it or not, but the high taxes, failing economy and lack of jobs have gotten worse... when hill came in as Senator, she promissed to fix these things and she hasent.. all because she is a senator here, doesnt mean everyone likes her... she has done shit for us when she said she would help out situation

sorry, but any of the new (or old, from your tone) hate of obama is a pile of dirt compared to the ememies hill has created over the years... 35 years in politics, shes got enough problems for the mccain campaign to get a foothold, exploit it and win the presidency

adding:

oh, by the way... how many user names have you had on this forum, Absolutentonic?

Edited May 3, 2008 by zosodude13

[Audacity]

You are another blind dumb ass who knows everything arent you. Mr bigprickbonehead.

[Mattmc1973]

You are another blind dumb ass who knows everything arent you. Mr bigprickbonehead.

Hello again icantquityouoverthehillsandfarawayabsolutetonic. Can't stay away, eh? Your name keeps changing, your M.O. never does.

[bigstickbonzo]

You are another blind dumb ass who knows everything arent you. Mr bigprickbonehead.

Me?

A self-appointed "old school republican" who is very moderate, is of an independent mind and can smell the shit of Washington politics and deem it suitable to your backyard's leaky sewage pipe.

What I do know is, this country has been corrupted to the brink of total insurrection by fat bodied pigs, probably of your background. Some people like to throw stones and some like to hurl mountains. If this country will not be hi-jacked from its current trend of sinking in the green-shit of the greed manure that seems to have entrenched all that was once thought as achievable, expect an even bigger change if McCain and his wild brand of "republicans" continue to strip away everything we've built for 232 years.

This country was founded on revolt. Don't think it couldn't happen again if things don't change.